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¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados
[Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of currency crises? Evidence for selected countries]

Author

Listed:
  • Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados
    [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of
    ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54103
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54103/1/MPRA_paper_54103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; foreign exchange; fiscal sustainability; probit model.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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