IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2003-145.html

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Enzo Croce
  • Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon

Abstract

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted debt ratio with primary fiscal surpluses. Based on quarterly estimates of this algorithm in the 1990s, 12 developed and developing countries are ranked according to their degree of sustainability. For a number of countries, the paper finds evidence of causality between the fiscal policy stance and growth-adjusted real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Enzo Croce & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2003/145, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16610
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    4. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 2001/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Luigi Spaventa, 1987. "The Growth of Public Debt: Sustainability, Fiscal Rules, and Monetary Rules," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 374-399, June.
    6. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    7. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    10. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott Régifère Mouandat, 2021. "Optimal debt in Gabon: an analysis in term of foreign currency compositions [La dette optimale au Gabon: une analyse en termes de composition en devises]," Post-Print hal-03326826, HAL.
    2. Figueiredo, Carlos Maurício Cabral & Nóbrega, Marcos Antônio Rios da, 2003. "The Fiscal Accountability Act: Brazil's experience," Seminarios y Conferencias 6617, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Watanabe, Kiyoshi, 2003. "Effects of External Debt on Domestic Resource Allocation in a Small Open Economy with Limited Access to the World Capital Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 21-56, December.
    4. Amieva-Huerta, Juan, 2003. "Federalismo fiscal: el caso de México," Seminarios y Conferencias 6620, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Gómez de la O., Eduardo, 2003. "La descentralización fiscal en México," Seminarios y Conferencias 6621, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. repec:jaf:journl:v:12:y:2021:i:1:n:331 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon & Emiliano Basco & Carlos Quarracino & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2006. "Banks During the Argentine Crisis: Were they All Hurt Equally? Did they All Behave Equally?," IMF Working Papers 2006/042, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Michael Bleaney, 2004. "Argentina's Currency Board Collapse: Weak Policy or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 699-714, May.
    9. Emmanuel Abuelafia & Sergio Berensztein & Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2005. "Who Decides on Public Expenditures? A Political Economy Analysis of the Budget Process: The Case of Argentina," Public Economics 0511004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Graciela Kaminsky & Amine Mati & Nada Choueiri, 2009. "Thirty Years of Currency Crises in Argentina: External Shocks or Domestic Fragility?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 81-123.
    11. Paunovic, Igor, 2005. "Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    12. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Chong, Alberto E., 2003. "Corporate Governance and Private Capital Flows to Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1457, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. World Bank, 2003. "Argentina : Reforming Policies and Institutions for Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures," World Bank Publications - Reports 14637, The World Bank Group.
    14. Galindo, Arturo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2002. "Credit Constraints in Latin America: An Overview of the Micro Evidence," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1438, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    16. Rolando H. Castañeda, 2002. "Lecciones de la Experiencia deReformas y de la Crisis Argentina para la Transición Cubana: Importancia del Proyecto Varela," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 12.
    17. -, 2003. "Una evaluación de los procesos de descentralización fiscal: documentos presentados en el XV Seminario de Política Fiscal," Seminarios y Conferencias 6612, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. C. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2020. "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 66-107, March.
    19. Alberto Chong & Alejandro Izquierdo & Alejandro Micco & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Conducción empresarial y flujos de capitales privados hacia América Latina," Research Department Publications 4324, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina’s Currency Board," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 43-108.
    21. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.