IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Risk Premium and Long-Run Global Imbalances

Listed author(s):
  • YiLi Chien

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Kanda Naknoi

    (University of Connecticut)

This study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances. We construct a stochastic growth multi-country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade. First, the degree of US equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world. Second, a fraction of households in every country maintains a fixed share of equity in their portfolios. In our calibrated model, which matches the US net foreign asset position and the equity premium, the average US household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. As a result, the US is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country. The long-run average trade deficit in our model accounts for more than 50% of the observed US trade deficit.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2012-41.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2012-41.

as
in new window

Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2012-41
Contact details of provider: Postal:
University of Connecticut 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063

Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt124628cx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Alan Greenspan, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : opening remarks," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-7.
  3. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 1999. "Quantitative asset pricing implications of endogenous solvency constraints," Working Papers 99-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Vasia Panousi, 2011. "Financial Integration, Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alvarez, Fernando & Guiso, Luigi & Lippi, Francesco, 2010. "Durable consumption and asset management with transaction and observation costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
  7. Matteo Maggiori, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," 2012 Meeting Papers 146, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp079, IIIS.
  9. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fatih Guvenen, 2009. "A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 15243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
  12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. anonymous, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges - a symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 24-26, 2000," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Jacob A. Frenkel, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : overview," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 319-326.
  15. Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet & Paolo Sodini & John Y. Campbell, 2009. "Fight Or Flight? Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors," Post-Print hal-00459683, HAL.
  16. Dirk Krueger & Hanno Lustig, 2006. "When is Market Incompleteness Irrelevant for the Price of Aggregate Risk (and when is it not)?," NBER Working Papers 12634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, David, 2014. "Monetary policy and the cyclicality of risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 59-75.
  18. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Haliassos, Michalis, 2010. "Differences in Portfolios across Countries: Economic Environment versus Household Characteristics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8017, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. George A. Kahn, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : a summary of the Bank's 2000 economic symposium," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-1.
  20. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates with Endogenously Segmented Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-112, February.
  21. Bacchetta, Philippe & Benhima, Kenza, 2012. "The Demand for Liquid Assets, Corporate Saving, and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 9268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Luigi Guiso & Paolo Sodini, 2012. "Household Finance. An Emerging Field," EIEF Working Papers Series 1204, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2012.
  24. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1947, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  25. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
  26. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 12580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Maarten van Rooij & Annamaria Lusardi & Rob Alessi, 2007. "Financial literacy and stock market participation," DNB Working Papers 146, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  28. Campbell, John, 2006. "Household Finance," Scholarly Articles 3157877, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  29. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2006. "Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-varying Risk Aversion? Micro-Evidence on Individuals' Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 12809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  32. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
  33. Angeletos, George-Marios & Panousi, Vasia, 2011. "Financial integration, entrepreneurial risk and global dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 863-896, May.
  34. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., "undated". "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," GSIA Working Papers 1997-37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  35. Stanley Fischer, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : overview," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 311-318.
  36. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
  37. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," NBER Working Papers 16677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Working Paper Series 2006-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  39. Finocchiaro, Daria, 2011. "Inattention, wealth inequality and equilibrium asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 146-155, March.
  40. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, 07.
  41. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, "undated". "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  42. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2008. "Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-Varying Risk Aversion? Micro-evidence on Individuals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 713-736, June.
  43. Neely, Christopher J & Roy, Amlan & Whiteman, Charles H, 2001. "Risk Aversion versus Intertemporal Substitution: A Case Study of Identification Failure in the Intertemporal Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 395-403, October.
  44. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 223-240, 08.
  45. Martin Feldstein, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : overview," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-309.
  46. Michael Haliassos and Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Calibration and Computation of Household Portfolio Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 194, Society for Computational Economics.
  47. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  48. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
  49. YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2007. "A Multiplier Approach to Understanding the Macro Implications of Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 13555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Harold L. Cole & Hanno & YiLi Chien, 2007. "Macro Implications of Household Finance," 2007 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  51. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, 07.
  52. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
  53. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  54. Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2009. "Household portfolios in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 373-382, December.
  55. George A. Kahn, 2000. "Global economic integration : opportunities and challenges : a summary of the Bank's 2000 Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-15.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2012-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark McConnel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.