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The Risk Premium and Long-Run Global Imbalances

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  • YiLi Chien

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Kanda Naknoi

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

This study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances. We construct a stochastic growth multi-country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade. First, the degree of US equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world. Second, a fraction of households in every country maintains a fixed share of equity in their portfolios. In our calibrated model, which matches the US net foreign asset position and the equity premium, the average US household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. As a result, the US is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country. The long-run average trade deficit in our model accounts for more than 50% of the observed US trade deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • YiLi Chien & Kanda Naknoi, 2012. "The Risk Premium and Long-Run Global Imbalances," Working papers 2012-41, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2012-41
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    Cited by:

    1. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "Why Are Exchange Rates So Smooth? A Household Finance Explanation," Working Papers 2015-39, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 26 Sep 2017.
    2. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2012. "Two-way capital flows and global imbalances: a neoclassical approach," Working Papers 2012-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Imbalances; Current Account; Risk Premium; Asset Pricing; Limited Participation;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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