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The Risk Premium and Long-Run Global Imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • Kanda Naknoi

    (University of Connecticut)

  • YiLi Chien

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

This study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances. We construct a stochastic growth multi-country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade. First, the degree of US equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world. Second, a fraction of households in every country maintains a fixed share of equity in their portfolios. In our calibrated model, which matches the US net foreign asset position and the equity premium, the average US household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. As a result, the US is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country. The long-run average trade deficit in our model accounts for more than 50% of the observed US trade deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanda Naknoi & YiLi Chien, 2013. "The Risk Premium and Long-Run Global Imbalances," 2013 Meeting Papers 55, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:55
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    Cited by:

    1. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf & Yuan Zhang, 2025. "An Intermediation-Based Model of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(8), pages 2386-2433.
    2. Jacek Rothert & Andy Glover & Ayse Kabukcuoglu Dur, 2023. "Winners and losers from reducing global imbalances," GRAPE Working Papers 80, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    3. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    4. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2020. "Why are exchange rates so smooth? A household finance explanation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 129-144.
    5. Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2020. "The United States as a Global Financial Intermediary and Insurer," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 2, January.
    6. Schroth, Josef, 2023. "Capital flows and growth across developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen & Zhiwei Xu, 2012. "Two-way capital flows and global imbalances: a neoclassical approach," Working Papers 2012-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Shaojun Zhang, 2021. "Limited Risk Sharing and International Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 893-933, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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