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Risk Aversion versus Intertemporal Substitution: A Case Study of Identification Failure in the Intertemporal Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model

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  • Neely, Christopher J
  • Roy, Amlan
  • Whiteman, Charles H

Abstract

Is the risk-aversion parameter in the intertemporal consumption capital asset pricing model "small" as stated by Hansen and Singleton or is its reciprocal--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution--small, as stated by Hall? We attribute the disparate estimates of this fundamental parameter not to failures of instrument admissibility as do Hall and Hansen and Singleton but rather to failures of instrument relevance. That is, the disparate estimates reflect near nonidentification due to the unpredictability of asset returns and consumption growth. Imposing natural identifying restrictions from the risk-aversion perspective and the intertemporal substitution perspective yields low and stable estimates in each case.

Suggested Citation

  • Neely, Christopher J & Roy, Amlan & Whiteman, Charles H, 2001. "Risk Aversion versus Intertemporal Substitution: A Case Study of Identification Failure in the Intertemporal Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 395-403, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:395-403
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Ribeiro, Priscila Fernandes, 2015. "Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution taking into account the precautionary savings motive," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 108-123.
    2. Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2007. "The Curse of Irving Fisher (Professional Forecasters' Version)," Working Papers 1144, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Startz Richard & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2012. "Nonexponential Discounting: A Direct Test And Perhaps A New Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-35, November.
    4. Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Consumption-Tightness Puzzle," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 9-63 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W & Whiteman, Charles H, 2005. "Forecasting Using Relative Entropy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 383-401, June.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
    7. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
    8. Bordo Michael D. & Dittmar Robert D & Gavin William T., 2007. "Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, August.
    9. Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Henong Li, 2013. "Weak Instrumental Variables Models for Longitudinal Data," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    10. Tam, Henry & Lai, Liona, 2009. "Explaining the equity premium in Hong Kong with C-CAPM: The use of emigration growth as an instrument," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 520-533, July.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 583, European Central Bank.
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    13. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
    14. Chien, YiLi & Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "The risk premium and long-run global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 299-315.
    15. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Paz, Lourenço S., 2013. "Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: Is the aggregate financial return free from the weak instrument problem?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 63-75.
    17. Masakatsu Okubo, 2011. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Analysis Based on Japanese Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 367-390, April.
    18. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    19. Fabio Canova, 2009. "Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis," Economics Working Papers 1159, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Ke-Hung Lai & Shu-Heng Chen & Ya-Chi Huang, 2005. "Bounded Rationality and the Elasticity Puzzle: What Can We Learn from the Agent-Based Computational Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 207, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. repec:pri:wwseco:dp222 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2004. "Don't break the habit: structural stability tests of consumption models in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 49, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    23. Ni, Shawn & Raymon, Neil, 2004. "Price uncertainty and consumer welfare in an intertemporal setting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1877-1901, July.
    24. Zongwu Cai & Henong Li, 2013. "Convergency and Divergency of Functional Coefficient Weak Instrumental Variables Models," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.

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