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Valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks

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  • Nguyen, Ha

Abstract

Changes in asset prices of a country's foreign assets and liabilities (“valuation effects”) are commonly thought of as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on NFA position. These contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. This theoretical result finds empirical support with G7 countries' data, and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the U.S. and other G7 countries since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Ha, 2011. "Valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 245-255.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:2:p:245-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.06.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Bengui, Julien & Nguyen, Ha, 2016. "Consumption baskets and currency choice in international borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 287-304.
    2. Rabitsch, Katrin & Stepanchuk, Serhiy & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "International portfolios: A comparison of solution methods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 404-422.
    3. David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.
    4. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E., 2013. "On returns differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-25.
    5. Jacek Rothert, 2012. "Productivity or Demand? Identifying Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economies," 2012 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem, 2016. "International portfolio flows with growth shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 84-86.
    7. Eugeni, Sara, 2015. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects," MPRA Paper 63549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2011. "Growth Shocks and Portfolio Flows," Working Papers 11-02, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    9. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation effects; Current account; External imbalances; Net foreign assets;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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