IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23363.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

Modern open economy macro models assume the continuous adjustment of international portfolio allocation. We introduce gradual portfolio adjustment into a global equity market model. Our approach differs from related literature in two key dimensions. First, the time interval between portfolio decisions is stochastic rather than fixed, leading to a smoother response to shocks. Second, rather than only considering asset returns, we also use data on portfolio shares to confront the model to the data. Conditional on reasonable risk aversion, we find that the data is consistent with infrequent portfolio decisions, with a frequency of at most once in 15 months on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," NBER Working Papers 23363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23363
    Note: AP IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23363.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    2. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    3. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    4. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    5. YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2012. "Is the Volatility of the Market Price of Risk Due to Intermittent Portfolio Rebalancing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2859-2896, October.
    6. Albuquerque, Rui & H. Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2009. "Global private information in international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-46, October.
    7. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(2), pages 269-287.
    8. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    10. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    11. Altonji, Joseph G & Segal, Lewis M, 1996. "Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-366, July.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    14. Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2009. "Do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 86-100, February.
    15. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    17. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2008. "Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-Varying Risk Aversion? Micro-evidence on Individuals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 713-736, June.
    19. Yannis Bilias & Dimitris Georgarakos & Michael Haliassos, 2010. "Portfolio Inertia and Stock Market Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 715-742, June.
    20. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    21. Vincent Bogousslavsky, 2016. "Infrequent Rebalancing, Return Autocorrelation, and Seasonality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2967-3006, December.
    22. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    23. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    24. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Staff Working Papers 04-42, Bank of Canada.
    25. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    26. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    27. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, July.
    28. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Dvorak, Tomas & Warnock, Francis E., 2010. "Decomposing the U.S. external returns differential," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 22-32, January.
    29. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    30. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-955, September.
    31. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    32. Didier, Tatiana & Lowenkron, Alexandre, 2012. "The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 518-541.
    33. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
    34. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708n2m4m is not listed on IDEAS
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p80a37 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708n2m4m is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    38. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Portfolio Choice Choice in an Open Economy Macro Model," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 491-499, 04-05.
    40. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    41. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-1317, July.
    42. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    43. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity-Premium Puzzle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 257-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    45. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. "Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-1497, September.
    46. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
    47. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    4. Bubeck, Johannes & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Manganelli, Simone, 2018. "The portfolio of euro area fund investors and ECB monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 103-126.
    5. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Davenport, Margaret & van Wincoop, Eric, 2022. "Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & Tièche, Simon & van Wincoop, Eric, 2020. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.
    4. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    9. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    10. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    11. Philippe Bacchetta, 2017. "Slow Moving Capital: Evidence from Global Equity Portfolios," 2017 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2010. "Home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01069440, HAL.
    13. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Fratzscher, Marcel & Saborowski, Christian & Straub, Roland, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice," Working Paper Series 1122, European Central Bank.
    16. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473901, HAL.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    21. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    22. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    23. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    24. Chien, YiLi & Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "The risk premium and long-run global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 299-315.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.