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Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows

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  • J. Scott Davis
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

We document that the correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 14 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows and outflows is consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Davis & Eric van Wincoop, 2017. "Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows," NBER Working Papers 23671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23671 Note: IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K Rose, 2017. "How important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from capital flows," BIS Working Papers 661, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gian‐Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 285-342, April.
    4. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 247, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
    6. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-787.
    7. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," NBER Working Papers 23363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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