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Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows

Listed author(s):
  • J. Scott Davis
  • Eric van Wincoop

We document that the correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 14 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows and outflows is consistent with the data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 23671.

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Date of creation: Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23671
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  1. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 17/193, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Rose, Andrew K, 2017. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 12075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Gian‐Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 285-342, 04.
  4. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 247, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
  6. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-787.
  7. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
  8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 17.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 17.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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