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Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios

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  • Curcuru, Stephanie E.

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Thomas, Charles P.

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Warnock, Francis E.

    (University of Virginia)

  • Wongswan, Jon

    (Phatra Securities Public Company Limited)

Abstract

Portfolio rebalancing is a key driver of the Uncovered Equity Parity (UEP) condition. According to UEP, when foreign equity holdings outperform domestic holdings, domestic investors are exposed to higher exchange rate exposure and hence repatriate some of the foreign equity to decrease their exchange rate risk. By doing so, foreign currency is sold, leading to foreign currency depreciation. We examine the relationship between U.S. investors' portfolio reallocations and returns and find some evidence consistent with UEP: Portfolio shifts are related to past returns in the underlying equity markets. But we argue that a motive other than reducing currency risk exposure is likely behind this rebalancing. In particular, U.S. investors may be exploiting mean reversion in underlying equity markets, rebalancing away from equity markets that recently performed well and moving into equity markets market just prior to relatively strong performance. Such behavior suggests tactical reallocations to increase returns rather than reduce risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1103
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    Cited by:

    1. Logan Lewis, 2013. "Menu Costs, Trade Flows, and Exchange Rate Volatility," 2013 Meeting Papers 313, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    3. Dongwon Lee & Kyungkeun Kim, 2016. "Global Risk and International Equity Portfolio Rebalancing," Working Papers 201605, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    4. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    5. Kyungkeun Kim & Dongwon Lee, 2017. "Equity Market Globalization and Portfolio Rebalancing," Working Papers 2017-17, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.
    7. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:215-227 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.

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    Keywords

    Exchange rate determination; international returns; equity portfolios;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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