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The uncovered return parity condition

Author

Listed:
  • Cappiello, Lorenzo
  • De Santis, Roberto A.

Abstract

This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in another economy, then the currency corresponding to the economy whose asset offers higher returns is expected to depreciate. Due to its similarity with Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), we call this equilibrium condition "Uncovered Return Parity" (URP). However, in the URP condition returns' differentials are not known ex ante, while in the UIP they are. The paper finds empirical support in favour of URP for certain markets over some sample periods. JEL Classification: F30, F31, G12, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 812, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007812
    Note: 234084
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp812.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio & Burnside, Craig & Kleshchelski, Isaac, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    3. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    4. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    5. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 626, European Central Bank.
    2. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2026. "Measuring financial integration in GCC stock markets: Dynamics, risk premia, and the path to enhanced cooperation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    4. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Abuelfadl, Moustafa & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Currency news and international bond markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Kunkler, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald, 2018. "Decomposition of the uncovered equity parity correlation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 44-58.
    7. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "On the Path to Old-Age Poverty - Assessing the Impact of the Funded Riester Pension," IMK Report 73e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1581-1595, December.
    9. Sun, Lingxia & Lee, Dong Wook, 2019. "Dollar-weighted return on aggregate corporate sector: How is it distributed across countries?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    11. Phylaktis, Kate & Yamani, Ehab, 2025. "Foreign currency forecasting in emerging markets: What can stock and bond markets tell us?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
    15. Daniel Carvalho & Martin Schmitz, 2024. "Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 203-230, December.
    16. Heike Joebges & Volker Meinhard & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2012. "Auf dem Weg in die Altersarmut - Bilanz der Einführung der kapitalgedeckten Riester-Rente," IMK Report 73-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Dirk G Baur & Isaac Miyakawa, 2013. "International Investors, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," Working Paper Series 178, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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