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Forecast Uncertainty and the Taylor Rule

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  • Christian Bauer
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule, which integrates two variables measuring the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of log-linearization and that a second-order Taylor approximation leads to a reaction function which includes the uncertainty of macroeconomic expectations. To test the model empirically, we use the standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample covers the euro area, Sweden, and the United Kingdom and the period 1992Q4-2014Q2. We find that while all three central banks react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation expectation uncertainty with an average effect of more than 25 basis points, they do not have significant reactions to GDP growth forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bauer & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "Forecast Uncertainty and the Taylor Rule," Research Papers in Economics 2015-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Kranz, 2016. "Persistent Stochastic Shocks in a New Keynesian Model with Uncertainty," Research Papers in Economics 2016-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    3. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is Chinese monetary policy forward-looking?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. repec:lus:reveco:v:68:y:2017:i:2:p:117-151:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Certainty-Equivalence; Consensus Forecasts; Forecast Uncertainty; Global Financial Crisis; Optimal Monetary Policy; Taylor Rule;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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