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Persistent Stochastic Shocks in a New Keynesian Model with Uncertainty

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  • Tobias Kranz

Abstract

Both from theoretical and practical viewpoints, I argue that the New Keynesian model's forward-looking IS curve should be derived by quadratic approximation. This leaves uncertainty in the basic three-equation model. After adding exogenous AR(1) processes, I examine the results by numerical simulation. First, I derive a reduced-form solution for the nominal rate of interest which describes the equilibrium behavior under optimal discretion. Focusing on the persistence parameter, the equilibrium will be simulated and compared to the model version containing the certainty equivalence. In a next step, impulse response functions show the adjustments over time after a cost shock. As a result, accounting for uncertainty can lead to lower interest rates of roughly 25 basis points compared to the case without uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Kranz, 2016. "Persistent Stochastic Shocks in a New Keynesian Model with Uncertainty," Research Papers in Economics 2016-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impulse Response; New Keynesian Model; Persistent Stochastic Shocks; Quadratic Approximation; Simulation; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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