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Misplaced childhood: When recession children grow up as central bankers

Author

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  • Etienne Farvaque

    () (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Franck Malan
  • Piotr Stanek

    (Cracow University of Economics)

Abstract

We examine how much an early – i.e., childhood – experience of recession influences the behavior of central bankers. We develop a model of decision making by a committee whose leader and members exhibit recession aversion due to their personal experience. The model reveals that recession aversion could lead to a reluctance of the policymaker to increase policy rates. In a panel multinomial logit model for nine major central banks analyzed over the period 1999–2015, we find that growing-up in a recession influences monetary policy-making. Central bankers' early personal experiences of recessions shape their policy reactions, increasing the willingness to cut policy rates, with policy-relevant magnitudes. The results are robust to alternative behavioral hypotheses, accounting for a number of control variables or sample variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Farvaque & Franck Malan & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Misplaced childhood: When recession children grow up as central bankers," Post-Print hal-02502635, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02502635
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.05.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02502635
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banking; Committees; Recession aversion; Discrete choice modeling; Behavioral economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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