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Evaluating the Effect of the Bank of Canada's Conditional Commitment Policy

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  • Zhongfang He

Abstract

The author evaluates the effect of the Bank of Canada's conditional commitment regarding the target overnight rate on longer-term market interest rates by taking into account the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and unemployment rates. By using vector autoregressive models of monthly interest rates, month-over-month inflation, and unemployment rates for Canada and the United States, the author finds that the Canadian 1-year treasury bill rates and 1-year forward 3-month rates have generally been lower than their model-implied values since April 2009, while the difference between the U.S. realized rates and their model-implied values has been much smaller. The author also studies the effect of the conditional commitment on longer-term government bond yields with maturities of 2, 5, and 10 years, and finds lower actual Canadian longer-term interest rates than their model-implied values, though their difference diminishes as the maturities become longer. The evidence appears to suggest that the Bank of Canada's conditional commitment likely has produced a persistent effect in lowering Canadian interest rates relative to what their historical relationship with inflation and unemployment rates would imply. However, this finding is not statistically strong and is subject to caveats such as possible in-sample model instability and the dependence of the results on the choice of inflation variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongfang He, 2010. "Evaluating the Effect of the Bank of Canada's Conditional Commitment Policy," Discussion Papers 10-11, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:10-11
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diez, Federico J. & Presno, Ignacio, 2013. "Domestic and foreign announcements on unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Margaux MacDonald & Michal Popiel, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 1367, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?," Staff Working Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    5. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2017. "Government bond yields at the effective lower bound: International evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2017-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 102-113.
    7. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    8. Moessner, Richhild, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on interest rate expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 170-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy implementation; Transmission of monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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