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Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy

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  • Nakazono, Yoshiyuki
  • Ueda, Kozo

Abstract

The Bank of Japan conducted its quantitative easing policy (QEP) from 2001 to 2006, with the policy commitment to maintaining its QEP until the CPI inflation rate became stably zero or higher. We evaluate its effects by using individual survey data on inflation expectations as well as interest rate expectations. Our analysis reveals a kinked relationship between interest rate expectations and inflation rate expectations at around the 0% threshold level of inflation expectations, in tune with this policy commitment. In addition, we evaluate the effects of the policy commitment on market expectations for the future path of short-term interest rates after the termination of the QEP. We find that, even when inflation expectations exceeded the threshold, interest rate expectations responded only gradually to inflation rate expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 102-113.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:25-26:y:2013:i::p:102-113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2013.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baba, Naohiko & Nishioka, Shinichi & Oda, Nobuyuki & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Ueda, Kazuo & Ugai, Hiroshi, 2005. "Japan's Deflation, Problems in the Financial System, and Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(1), pages 47-111, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fujiwara, Ippei & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-81.
    2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2015. "Abenomics: Why was it so successful in changing market expectations?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation?," Working Papers halshs-01545830, HAL.
    4. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 102-113.
    5. Junko Koeda, 2011. "Japanese Yield Curves In and Out of a Zero Rate Environmnet: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-254, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2011.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commitment policy; Policy duration effect; Unconventional monetary policy; Zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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