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Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy

  • Nakazono, Yoshiyuki
  • Ueda, Kozo

The Bank of Japan conducted its quantitative easing policy (QEP) from 2001 to 2006, with the policy commitment to maintaining its QEP until the CPI inflation rate became stably zero or higher. We evaluate its effects by using individual survey data on inflation expectations as well as interest rate expectations. Our analysis reveals a kinked relationship between interest rate expectations and inflation rate expectations at around the 0% threshold level of inflation expectations, in tune with this policy commitment. In addition, we evaluate the effects of the policy commitment on market expectations for the future path of short-term interest rates after the termination of the QEP. We find that, even when inflation expectations exceeded the threshold, interest rate expectations responded only gradually to inflation rate expectations.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 25-26 (2013)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 102-113

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:25-26:y:2013:i::p:102-113
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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  1. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "The Effects Of The Bank Of Japan'S Zero Interest Rate Commitment And Quantitative Monetary Easing On The Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 303-328.
  2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  3. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Zhongfang He, 2010. "Evaluating the Effect of the Bank of Canada's Conditional Commitment Policy," Discussion Papers 10-11, Bank of Canada.
  5. Puneet Chehal & Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Talking about tomorrow’s monetary policy today," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov9.
  6. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
  7. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
  8. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2011. "Policy Commitment and Market Expectations: Lessons Learned from Survey Based Evidence under Japan's Quantitative Easing Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  9. Naohiko Baba & Shinichi Nishioka & Nobuyuki Oda & Masaaki Shirakawa & Kazuo Ueda & Hiroshi Ugai, 2005. "Japan's deflation, problems in the financial system and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 188, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Kozo Ueda, 2010. "A Time-Invariant Duration Policy under the Zero Lower Bound," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  11. Jouchi Nakajima & Shigenori Shiratsuka & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Commitment: Evidence from Time- varying Parameter VAR Analysis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  12. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
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