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Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap

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  • Ippei Fujiwara
  • Yoshiyuki Nakazono
  • Kozo Ueda

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of the first arrow of Abenomics in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations. In order to end chronic deflation, a policy regime change must be perceived by economic agents. Analysis using the QUICK survey system (QSS) monthly survey data shows that the reaction of monetary policy to inflation has been declining since the mid 2000s, implying intensified forward guidance well before Abenomics. However, Japan seems to have moved closer to a long-term liquidity trap, where even long-term bond yields are constrained by the zero lower bound. Estimated changes in perceptions are not abrupt enough to satisfy Sargent's (1982) criteria for a regime change. This poses a serious challenge to central banks: what is an effective policy option left under the long-term liquidity trap?

Suggested Citation

  • Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Globalization Institute Working Papers 233, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:233
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp233
    Note: Published as: Fujiwara, Ippei, Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Kozo Ueda (2015), "Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation? Policy Option Under a Long-term Liquidity Trap," Journal of Japanese and International Economies 37: 59-81.
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    2. Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    3. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Inflation target and anchor of inflation forecasts in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 154-170.
    4. Kondo, Yoshihiro & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ota, Rui & Sui, Qing-Yuan, 2020. "Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia; a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/099, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tawk, Nour, 2019. "Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A global VAR Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 147-163.
    7. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policy and Large Scale Fiscal Policy Effective?: The Case of Japan," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 42-48, August.
    8. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.
    9. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Hiroshi Ugai, "undated". "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," Working Papers e102, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    11. Koeda, Junko, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-141.
    12. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    13. KANO, Takashi & WADA, Kenji, 2015. "The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-run Risk Perspective," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-13, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

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    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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