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Reviewing US Monetary Policy in Disinflation Era: A Primer

Author

Listed:
  • Ryo Kato

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yoko Takeda

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper reviews the experience of US monetary policy from 2000 to shed some light on issues regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy in a low inflation era. Our analysis is twofold. First, based on a simple inflation forecast targeting model introduced in Svensson (1997) and Kato and Nishiyama (2002) as its variant, we demonstrate that the actual federal funds rate closely followed its optimal path predicted by the model from the late 90s to mid-2003. Second, we examine the response of long-term interest rates or an implied forward curve to FOMC's policy changes by employing a version of the new IS/LM model. The result shows that the observed financial market response to the FOMC's statement released in August 2003 can be no less consistent with an effective change in the expectation of the degree of interest rate inertia than a failed policy commitment. Our simulation suggests that we cannot conclude that the Fed's commitment was ineffective during the recent phase of stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryo Kato & Yoko Takeda, 2004. "Reviewing US Monetary Policy in Disinflation Era: A Primer," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-13, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:04-e-13
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    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2004/data/wp04e13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 97-133, January.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 303-323, April.
    3. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Fujiwara, Ippei & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2015. "Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-81.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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