Policy Regime Change against Chronic Deflation? Policy option under long-term liquidity trap
The policy package known as Abenomics appears to have influenced the Japanese economy drastically, in particular, in the financial markets. In this paper, focusing on the aggressive monetary easing of Abenomics, the first arrow, we evaluate its role in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations. In order to end chronic deflation, such as that which Japan has been suffering over the last two decades, policy regime change must be perceived by economic agents. Analysis using the QUICK survey system (QSS) monthlysurvey data shows that monetary policy reaction to inflation rates has been in a declining trend since the mid 2000s, implying intensified forward guidance well before Abenomics. However, Japan seems to have moved closer to a long-term liquidity trap, where even long-term bond yields are constrained by the zero lower bound. Consequently, no sizable difference in perceptions has been found before and after the introduction of Abenomics. Estimated changes in perceptions are not abrupt enough to satisfy "Sargent's (1982) criteria for regime change" termed by Eggertsson (2008). This poses a serious challenge to central banks: what is an effective policy option left under the long-term liquidity trap?
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (61-2) 6249 3780
Fax: (61-2) 6249 3941
Web page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/research_units/ajrc/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997.
"Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory,"
Economics Working Papers
350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011.
"The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases,"
Working Paper Series
2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2007.
"Is there a direct effect of money?: Money's role in an estimated monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 329-337, August.
- Ippei Fujiwara, 2003. "Is There a Direct Effect of Money?: Money's Role in an Estimated Monetary Business Cycle Model of the Japanese Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 03-15, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
- Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013.
"Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero,"
CAMA Working Papers
2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2015. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Discussion Paper Series 1502, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Gauti Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov & Saroj Bhatarai, 2014. "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing," 2014 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008.
"Great Expectations and the End of the Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
- Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
- Koichiro Kamada & Tomohiro Sugo, 2006. "Evaluating Japanese Monetary Policy under the Non-negativity Constraint on Nominal Short-term Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-17, Bank of Japan.
- Jung, Taehun & Teranishi, Yuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero-Interest-Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 813-35, October.
- John H. Cochrane, 2010.
"Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic,"
NBER Working Papers
16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001.
"Avoiding Liquidity Traps,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Departmental Working Papers 199925, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1982.
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations,"
in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
- Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2011.
"Policy Commitment and Market Expectations: Lessons Learned from Survey Based Evidence under Japan's Quantitative Easing Policy,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
11-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 102-113.
- Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
- Fujiki, Hiroshi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2002. "Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan's Money Market Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcwp:1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Akira Kinefuchi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.