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Policy Regime Change against Chronic Deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap

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  • FUJIWARA Ippei
  • NAKAZONO Yoshiyuki
  • UEDA Kozo

Abstract

The policy package known as Abenomics appears to have influenced the Japanese economy drastically, in particular, in the financial markets. In this paper, focusing on the aggressive monetary easing of Abenomics, the first arrow, we evaluate its role in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations. In order to end chronic deflation, such as that which Japan has been suffering over the last two decades, policy regime change must be perceived by economic agents. Analysis using the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) monthly survey data shows that monetary policy reaction to inflation rates has been in a declining trend since the mid 2000s, implying intensified forward guidance well before Abenomics. However, Japan seems to have moved closer to a long-term liquidity trap, where even long-term bond yields are constrained by the zero lower bound. Consequently, no sizable difference in perceptions has been found before and after the introduction of Abenomics. Estimated changes in perceptions are not abrupt enough to satisfy "Sargent's (1982) criteria for regime change" termed by Eggertsson (2008). This poses a serious challenge to central banks: what is an effective policy option left under the long-term liquidity trap?

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  • FUJIWARA Ippei & NAKAZONO Yoshiyuki & UEDA Kozo, 2014. "Policy Regime Change against Chronic Deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap," Discussion papers 14019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:14019
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:337-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    3. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    4. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia; a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 16/99, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:rfa:afajnl:v:3:y:2017:i:2:p:42-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    7. Kano, Takashi & Wada, Kenji, 2017. "The first arrow hitting the currency target: A long-run risk perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 337-352.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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