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Quantitative Easing, Credibility and the Time-Varying Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest rate in Japan

Author

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  • Yusho Kagraoka

    () (Musashi University - Musashi University)

  • Zakaria Moussa

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A key issue in current research about quantitative easing monetary policy (QEMP) is the ability of this strategy to impact the term structure of interest rates. Using a dynamic model for the yield curve with time-varying-parameters to the Japanese data, we provide three insights. First, the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is generally supported even during the QEMP period. Second, the estimation results reveal that the contribution of macroeconomic variables on the variation of the yield curve is relatively small, especially during the QEMP period. As for the feed-back effect, the yield curve factors contribute only marginally to inflation variation. However, they account for more relevant part of output gap dynamics. Third, the monetary policy shock has a significant effect on yield curve level factor only during the high interest rates periods. However, the decline in the level factor during the QEMP period, while insignificant, indicates a strengthening credibility of the Bank of Japan and thus the effectiveness of its policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusho Kagraoka & Zakaria Moussa, 2010. "Quantitative Easing, Credibility and the Time-Varying Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest rate in Japan," Working Papers halshs-00543010, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00543010
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    Cited by:

    1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 301-313.
    2. Tzu-Kuang Hsu & Chin-Chang Tsai, 2017. "Explore the Impact of the Trading Value, The Oil Price and Quantitative Easing Policy on the Taiwan and Korea Stock Market Return with Quantile Regression," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 15-26, January.
    3. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    4. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2016. "Markov-switching variance models and structural changes underlying Japanese bond yields: An inquiry into non-linear dynamics," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 74-80.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing Policy; Macro-finance model; Time-varying-parameter VAR; Japan; Expectation channel;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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