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The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy during a Zero Interest Rate Period

  • Nagayasu, Jun

    (International Monetary Fund and Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, U Tsukuba)

This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low interest rate environment using high-frequency Japanese data. Allowing for the time-varying term premium, we obtain evidence that when interest rates are low and the short end of the term structure is studied, there is no evidence to support the term- structure relationship. This poor performance is attributed to little information in the interest rate spread that can be used to predict future economic activity and/or to the absence of the persistent term premium. In contrast, some evidence for the term-structure relationship is found when the long end of the term-structure data is considered during a relatively high interest rate period.

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me22-2-2.pdf
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Article provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 19-43

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Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:22:y:2004:i:2:p:19-43
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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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  12. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  15. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312 Bank for International Settlements.
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