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The Effects of Monetary Policy Commitment: Evidence from Time- varying Parameter VAR Analysis

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Currently in the Personnel and Corporate Affairs Department (studying at Duke University, E-mail: jouchi.nakajima@stat.duke.edu))

  • Shigenori Shiratsuka

    (Deputy Director-General, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: shigenori.shiratsuka@boj.or.jp))

  • Yuki Teranishi

    (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yuuki.teranishi@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the effects of the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ's) policy commitment under zero interest rates on the economy, by considering the transmission channel of altering private-sector expectations. To that end, we carry out a structural vector autoregression analysis on macroeconomic variables and private-sector expectations variables, using a time-varying parameters estimation technique with stochastic volatility. We show empirical evidence on two points. First, the BOJ's policy commitment regarding the future course of short-term interest rates, associated with only a small reduction in policy interest rates, succeeded in altering private-sector expectations. Second, the BOJ's policy commitment alone, nevertheless, was not sufficient to restore the previous trends in prices and output.

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/10-E-06.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 10-E-06.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-06
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Keywords: Policy commitment; policy duration effect; expectations management; Bayesian estimation; time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
  • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Andrew Levin & David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Yack Yun, 2010. "Limitations on the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 143-189, March.
  2. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Monetary Policy under Zero Interest Rate: Viewpoints of Central Bank Economists," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 89-130, February.
  3. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2002. "Policy Duration Effect under the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999-2000: Evidence from Japan's Money Market Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, January.
  4. Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Yusuke Inomata & Satoshi Ito & Takuji Kawamoto & Takushi Kurozumi & Makoto Minegishi & Izumi Takagawa, 2006. "The New Estimates of Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate," Bank of Japan Review Series 06-E-3, Bank of Japan.
  5. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  6. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
  7. Jung, Taehun & Teranishi, Yuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero-Interest-Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 813-835, October.
  8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  9. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
  10. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312 Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:

  1. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  2. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
  3. Fumio Hayashi & Junko Koeda, 2014. "Exiting from QE," NBER Working Papers 19938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 102-113.
  5. Nakajima Jouchi, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, October.
  6. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
  7. Fumio Hayashi & Junko Koeda, 2013. "A Regime-Switching SVAR Analysis of Quantitative Easing," CARF F-Series CARF-F-322, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  8. Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2013. "Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 151-164, April.
  9. Moussa, Zakaria, 2010. "The Japanese Quantitative Easing Policy under Scrutiny: A Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented VAR Model," MPRA Paper 29429, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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