IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v37y2014i6p811-833.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
  • Jianxin Wang
  • Minxian Yang

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="twec12089-abs-0001"> This study examines how the volatility and liquidity of 10 Asian exchange rates against the US dollar change with volatilities in commodity price and carry trade over the period of January 2000 to June 2010. We find that uncertainties in commodity markets and carry trades are significantly correlated with the volatilities and the bid-ask spreads of most Asian currencies. The correlation with carry trade is generally stronger and has been rising over the sample period. While high volatilities in carry trade are associated with high volatilities in many Asian currencies, high volatilities in commodity price do not coincide with excessive volatilities in Asian currencies. This suggests that investors and policymakers should be more concerned with the volatility in carry trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Jianxin Wang & Minxian Yang, 2014. "Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 811-833, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:6:p:811-833
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.2014.37.issue-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2009. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific onshore and offshore currency forwards markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 174-196, March.
    2. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    5. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2011. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 32-43, January.
    6. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2011. "Towards an Expanded Role for Asian Currencies : Issues and Prospects," Finance Working Papers 23251, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Fulvio Corsi & Stefan Mittnik & Christian Pigorsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2008. "The Volatility of Realized Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 46-78.
    8. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    9. Pojarliev, Momtchil & Levich, Richard M., 2010. "Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1752-1775, December.
    10. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    11. Harendra Kumar Behera, 2011. "Onshore and offshore market for Indian rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 43-55.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Jubinski, Dan, 1999. "Equity Trading Volume and Volatility: Latent Information Arrivals and Common Long-Run Dependencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-21, January.
    13. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
    14. Robert McCauley & Michela Scatigna, 2011. "Foreign exchange trading in emerging currencies: more financial, more offshore," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Jacob Gyntelberg & Eli M Remolona, 2007. "Risk in carry trades: a look at target currencies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    17. Ann Shawing Yang & Ming-Lung Wu, 2011. "Exploring the relationship between investor sentiment and price volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 955-965.
    18. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
    19. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "A note on exchange rate regimes in Asia: Are they really what they claim to be?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2864-2876.
    20. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    21. Marion Kohler, 2010. "Exchange rates during financial crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Hong, Harrison & Yu, Jialin, 2009. "Gone fishin': Seasonality in trading activity and asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 672-702, November.
    23. Wamg, Jianxin, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Asian Stock Markets: Contributions of Local, Regional, and Global Factors," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 32-57.
    24. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    25. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    28. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2011. "Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-73, February.
    29. Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
    30. Sheng, Andrew & Kwek, Kian-Teng & Cho, Cho-Wai, 2009. "A tale of Asian exchange rate management: Romance of the three currencies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-535, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianxin, 2013. "Liquidity commonality among Asian equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1209-1231.
    2. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    3. Michael Melvin & John Prins & Duncan Shand, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: An Investor Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4238, CESifo.
    4. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade: Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    8. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John & Shand, Duncan, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.),Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 721-750, Elsevier.
    9. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    10. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    11. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    12. Tim A. Kroencke & Felix Schindler & Andreas Schrimpf, 2014. "International Diversification Benefits with Foreign Exchange Investment Styles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1847-1883.
    13. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    14. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    16. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    17. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    18. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019.
    19. Wamg, Jianxin, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Asian Stock Markets: Contributions of Local, Regional, and Global Factors," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 32-57.
    20. Wen Cheong Chin & Min Cherng Lee, 2018. "S&P500 volatility analysis using high-frequency multipower variation volatility proxies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1297-1318, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:6:p:811-833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.