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Towards an Expanded Role for Asian Currencies : Issues and Prospects

Author

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  • Hwee Kwan Chow

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

Abstract

Notwithstanding incumbency advantages and network effects enjoyed by the United States (US) dollar, considerations about the stability of its value have led Asian countries to fear they are holding their foreign exchange reserves in a depreciating currency. At the same time, it pays for the regional countries to adjust their reserve currency composition to match the point of reference of their exchange rate policy. This paper examines empirically which regional currency or currencies seem to matter for exchange rate determination in Asia beyond the very short term. To this end, we employ country-specific Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models to compare the relative impact which fluctuations in the Asian Currency Unit (ACU), yuan, and yen separately have on movements of Asian currencies. Contrary to recent evidence based on daily data, we found monthly exchange rates variations in the region are more heavily influenced by the cumulative effect of key Asian currencies than by the yuan or the yen individually within the sample period we used. To the extent that exchange rates in the region shift over time from benchmarking the US dollar towards a broad range of Asian currencies, Asian central banks will find it more attractive to cross-hold Asian bonds. This calls for the development of deep private markets in such assets, as well as institutional prerequisites for internationalizing key regional currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwee Kwan Chow, 2011. "Towards an Expanded Role for Asian Currencies : Issues and Prospects," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23251, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23251
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Jianxin Wang & Minxian Yang, 2014. "Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 811-833, June.
    2. Masahiro Kawai & Victor Pontines, 2014. "Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia?," ADBI Working Papers 467, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Masahiro Kawai & Victor Pontines, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24218, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Chang Sik Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2018. "RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 31-48, Fall.
    5. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2016. "Is there really a renminbi bloc in Asia?: A modified Frankel–Wei approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 72-97.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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