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Onshore and offshore market for Indian Rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover

Author

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  • Behera, Harendra

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the onshore-offshore linkages of the Indian rupee using recently developed multivariate GARCH techniques. The empirical results show that offshore non deliverable forward (NDF) market does not have mean spillover impact on onshore spot, forward and futures market while shocks and volatilities in NDF market influence the onshore markets. The magnitude of volatility spillover from NDF to spot market, which was lower earlier, became higher after the introduction of currency futures in India. This is probably due to the fact that large arbitrage had taken place between futures and NDF market in recent past. Hence, the study suggests the close monitoring of both the onshore and offshore markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Behera, Harendra, 2010. "Onshore and offshore market for Indian Rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover," MPRA Paper 22247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
    4. Sangita Misra, 2007. "Non Deliverable Foreign Exchange Forward Market: An Overview," Working Papers id:1259, eSocialSciences.
    5. John Cairns & Corrinne Ho & Robert McCauley, 2007. "Exchange rates and global volatility: implications for Asia-Pacific currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Patrick C. Higgins & Owen F. Humpage, 2005. "Nondeliverable forwards: can we tell where the renminbi is headed?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Sep.
    7. Hideki Izawa, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Efficiency Hypothesis on the Renminbi NDF in Hong Kong Market," Kobe Economic & Business Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 52, pages 1-6, February.
    8. Park, Jinwoo, 2001. "Information flows between non-deliverable forward (NDF) and spot markets: Evidence from Korean currency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 363-377, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saurabh Ghosh, 2014. "Volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market: the Indian experience," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 175-194, March.
    2. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    3. Nikhil Patel & Dora Xia, 2019. "Offshore markets drive trading of emerging market currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Samar Maziad & Mr. Joong S Kang, 2012. "RMB Internationalization: O+L5022nshore/Offshore Links," IMF Working Papers 2012/133, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 2015. "Foreign exchange markets, intervention and exchange rate regimes," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Gaurav Raizada & Vartika Srivastava & S. V. D. Nageswara Rao, 2020. "Shall One Sit “Longer” for a Free Lunch? Impact of Trading Durations on the Realized Variances and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 1-28, March.
    7. Harendra Behera & Rajiv Ranjan & Sajjid Chinoy, 2022. "Does offshore NDF market influence onshore forex market? Evidence from India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1167-1185, June.
    8. Mohini GUPTA & Purwa SRIVASTAVA & Amritkant MISHRA & Malayaranjan SAHOO, 2021. "Time-varying volatility spillover of foreign exchange rate in three Asian markets: Based on DCC-GARCH approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 105-120, Winter.
    9. Li, Xue & Liu, Yanghui & Li, Hanxu & Li, Jie, 2021. "Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Jianxin Wang & Minxian Yang, 2014. "Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 811-833, June.
    11. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Non-deliverable forwards: 2013 and beyond," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non deliverable forward; volatility spillover; multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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