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Volatility Transmission between Renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures

Author

Listed:
  • Roberta Colavecchio

  • Michael Funke

Abstract

This paper uses multivariate GARCH techniques to study volatility spillovers between the Chinese non-deliverable forward market and seven of its Asia-Pacific counterparts over the period January 1998 to March 2005. To account for the time-variability of conditional correlation, a dynamic correlation structure is included in the volatility model specification. The empirical results demonstrate that the renminbi non-deliverable forward (NDF) has been a driver of various Asian currency markets but that such co-movements exhibit a substantial degree of heterogeneity. As to the determinants of the magnitude of these co-movements, we test the relevance of potential factors and find that it is the degree of real and financial integration, in particular, that exerts the largest influence on volatility transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Colavecchio & Michael Funke, 2008. "Volatility Transmission between Renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20803, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20803
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2017. "The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis," Working Papers 062017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li & Zhou, Chunyang & Lee, Geul, 2014. "Co-movement between RMB and New Taiwan Dollars: Evidences from NDF markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 265-272.
    3. Zhao, Yanping & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert & Yang, Haizhen, 2013. "The relationship between the Renminbi future spot return and the forward discount rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 156-168.
    4. Dai, Yanke & Li, Baoxin & Xu, Yangfei, 2023. "International transmission of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from FIEs’ investments in China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Jia, Fei & Shen, Yao & Ren, Junfan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "The impact of offshore exchange rate expectations on onshore exchange rates: The case of Chinese RMB," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Harendra Behera & Rajiv Ranjan & Sajjid Chinoy, 2022. "Does offshore NDF market influence onshore forex market? Evidence from India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1167-1185, June.
    7. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "Exchange rate persistence of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in the NDF market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    8. Gu, Li & McNelis, Paul D., 2013. "Yen/Dollar volatility and Chinese fear of floating: Pressures from the NDF market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 37-49.
    9. Donald Lien & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang & Chunyang Zhou, 2013. "Dynamic and Asymmetric Dependences Between Chinese Yuan and Other Asia‐Pacific Currencies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 696-723, August.
    10. Wan, Xiaoli & Yan, Yuruo & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes and market integration: evidence from the dynamic relations between renminbi onshore and offshore markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    12. Li, Xue & Liu, Yanghui & Li, Hanxu & Li, Jie, 2021. "Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Owyong, David & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2015. "Cointegration and causality among the onshore and offshore markets for China's currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 20-38.
    14. Harendra Kumar Behera, 2011. "Onshore and offshore market for Indian rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 43-55.
    15. Liu, Li-Gang & Pauwels, Laurent L., 2012. "Do external political pressures affect the Renminbi exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1800-1818.
    16. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    17. Luke Lin & Wen-Yuan Lin, 2018. "Does the major market influence transfer? Alternative effect on Asian stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1169-1200, May.
    18. Su, Zhenqing & Li, Jiankun & Pang, Qiwei & Su, Miao, 2025. "China futures market and world container shipping economy: An exploratory analysis based on deep learning," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
    20. Lu, Changrong & Li, Jiaxiang & Liu, Lian & Yu, Fandi, 2023. "Spillover effect of the RMB and Non-USD currencies after the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence captured from 30-minute high frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 527-552.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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