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Do external political pressures affect the Renminbi exchange rate?

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Listed author(s):
  • Liu, Li-Gang
  • Pauwels, Laurent L.

Abstract

This paper investigates whether external political pressure for faster Renminbi appreciation affects both the daily returns and the conditional volatility of the Renminbi central parity rate. We construct several political pressure indicators pertaining to the Renminbi exchange rate, with a special emphasis on the US pressure, to test the hypothesis. After controlling for Chinese macroeconomic surprise news, we find that US and non-US political pressure does not have a significant influence on Renminbi's daily returns. However, evidence suggests that political pressures, and especially those from the US, have statistically significant impacts on the conditional volatility of the Renminbi. Furthermore, we conduct the same exercise on the 12-month Renminbi non-deliverable forward rate. We find that the non-deliverable forward market is highly responsive to macroeconomic surprise news and there is some evidence that Sino-US bilateral meetings affect the conditional volatility of the Renminbi non-deliverable forward rate.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560612000782
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1800-1818

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1800-1818
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.04.001
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Keywords: Renminbi exchange rate; Event studies; Political pressures; Non-deliverable forward; Macroeconomic news;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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  1. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi-US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
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  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, NBER-EASE Volume 3, pages 295-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Masahiro Kawai & Li-Gang Liu, 2015. "Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(1), pages 49-89, March.
  2. Owyong, David & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2015. "Cointegration and causality among the onshore and offshore markets for China's currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 20-38.
  3. Xiaojing Zhang & Tao Sun, 2009. "Spillovers of the U.S. Subprime Financial Turmoil to Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR; Evidence from Stock Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/166, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
  5. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  6. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Asymmetric loss and rationality of Chinese renminbi forecasts: An implication for the trade between China and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-127.

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