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The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling us something about where the Renminbi – US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?

Listed author(s):
  • Michael Funke
  • Marc Gronwald

On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD) exchange rate using the family of time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) models. Specifically, the nonlinear models allow for a smooth transition from one optimal level to another. Our estimation results imply that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely be about 7.10 RMB/USD in summer/autumn 2009.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-04/cesifo1_wp2272.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2272.

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Date of creation: 2008
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2272
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  9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," Working Paper Series rwp08-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  12. Kim, Yong Jin, 2007. "A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 122-138.
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  15. Lamin Y Leigh & Steven V Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates; The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
  17. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
  18. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-542, November.
  19. Guy Debelle & Jacob Gyntelberg & Michael Plumb, 2006. "Forward currency markets in Asia: lessons from the Australian experience," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, pages -, September.
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