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The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling us something about where the Renminbi – US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?


  • Michael Funke
  • Marc Gronwald


On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD) exchange rate using the family of time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) models. Specifically, the nonlinear models allow for a smooth transition from one optimal level to another. Our estimation results imply that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely be about 7.10 RMB/USD in summer/autumn 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling us something about where the Renminbi – US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2272, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2272

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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2017. "The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis," Working Papers 062017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Aihua Wang & Faruk Balli & Xiumin Li, 2015. "Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 635-650, October.
    3. Liu, Li-Gang & Pauwels, Laurent L., 2012. "Do external political pressures affect the Renminbi exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1800-1818.
    4. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Dominik A. Skopiec, 2014. "Perspektywy internacjonalizacji waluty Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-31.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Martin Siddiqui, 2015. "Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-varying Exchange Rate Basket," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 608-623, August.
    8. Das, Dilip K., 2009. "The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 570-579, September.

    More about this item


    China; renminbi; de facto exchange rate regime; TV-AR model; TV-AR-GARCH model;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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