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Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

  • Balagtas, Joseph Valdes
  • Holt, Matthew T.

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/27/06.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21405
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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21405.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21405
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  1. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  2. Persson, Anna & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "The Net Barter Terms Of Trade : A Smooth Transition Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 335, Stockholm School of Economics.
  3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
  6. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  7. Zanias, George P., 2005. "Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-59, October.
  8. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  9. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  10. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  11. Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
  12. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  14. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
  15. Z. Lomnicki, 1961. "Tests for departure from normality in the case of linear stochastic processes," Metrika, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 37-62, December.
  16. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
  17. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
  18. Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Tae-Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, 09.
  20. Jose Antonio Ocampo & Maria Angela Parra, 2004. "The Terms Of Trade For Commodities In The Twentieth Century," International Trade 0402006, EconWPA.
  21. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
  22. Hall, Anthony D. & Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "A nonlinear time series model of El Niño," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 263, Stockholm School of Economics.
  23. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  24. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
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