IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/syb/wpbsba/2123-8165.html

Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Li-Gang
  • Pauwels, Laurent

Abstract

This paper investigates whether external political pressure for faster renminbi (RMB) appreciation affect both the daily returns and the conditional volatility of the RMB central parity rate. We construct several political pressure indicators pertaining to the RMB exchange rate, with a special emphasis on the US pressure, to test the hypothesis. After controlling for Chinese macroeconomic surprise news, we find that US and non-US political pressure does not have a significant influence on RMB's daily returns. However, evidence suggests that political pressures, and especially those from the US, have statistically significant impacts on the conditional volatility of the RMB. Furthermore, we conduct the same exercise on the 12-month RMB nondeliverable forward rate (NDF). We find that the NDF market is highly responsive to macroeconomic surprise news and there is some evidence that Sino-US bilateral meetings affect the conditional volatility of the RMB NDF.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Li-Gang & Pauwels, Laurent, 2011. "Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate?," Working Papers 10/2011, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    • Handle: RePEc:syb:wpbsba:2123/8165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/8165
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:syb:wpbsba:2123/8165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Artem Prokhorov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbsydau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.