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Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009


  • Jarko Fidrmuc


We use the Kalman filter to estimate the structure of the secret currency basket of the renminbi based on daily data between 2005 and 2009. The currency weights of selected currencies are modeled as stochastic processes (random walks). The official announcement of the new exchange rate regime in July 2005 with the introduction of a secret currency basket was followed by a smooth appreciation against the US dollar. Other currencies did not play a major role. We show that the US dollar again received a higher weight in the Chinese exchange rate policy already before the financial crisis of 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009," CESifo Working Paper Series 3147, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3147

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & Daniel Xie, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 568-572, May.
    3. Samuel Reynard, 2009. "What Drives the Swiss Franc?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 64(03), pages 335-363, December.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi-US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2007. "Is China’s FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," Chapters,in: Foreign Direct Investment in Europe, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsayyad, May & Konrad, Kai A., 2012. "Fighting multiple tax havens," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 295-305.
    2. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.

    More about this item


    exchange rate regime; Kalman filter; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation


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