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Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform

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  • Li, Xue
  • Liu, Yanghui
  • Li, Hanxu
  • Li, Jie

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the onshore spot market and offshore forward market for Chinese currency around the period of China's “8.11” exchange rate regime reform, one of the most important market-oriented reforms implemented on August 11, 2015. We compare return and volatility spillover effects between the two markets before and after the “8.11” reform. The empirical evidence shows that a remarkable change has occurred in both the return and volatility spillovers. Before the reform, return and volatility spillovers exist from the offshore forward market to the onshore spot market. After the reform, however, we observe an obvious reverse in the direction and an increase in the strength of the return and volatility spillover effects. These findings suggest the existence of cross-market information flows, a change in the direction and a strengthening of the dynamic relationship after the reform. We argue that the “8.11” reform serves as a milestone reflecting long-term underlying forces that increase the relative importance of the onshore market.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xue & Liu, Yanghui & Li, Hanxu & Li, Jie, 2021. "Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000353
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101617
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang Wang & Xianyan Xiong & Ziqiu Cao, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility spillovers between Chinese renminbi onshore and offshore markets during the COVID-19 crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Xing Yu & Yanyan Li & Xinxin Wang, 2024. "RMB exchange rate forecasting using machine learning methods: Can multimodel select powerful predictors?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 644-660, April.
    3. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2024. "The price discovery in the renminbi/USD market: Two spot, two swap, and three forward FX rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin & Qin, Rong-Ling & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Return spillover across China's financial markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Sun, Guanglin & Li, Jianfeng & Shang, Zezhong, 2022. "Return and volatility linkages between international energy markets and Chinese commodity market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Huang, Zhigang & Li, Jie, 2023. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through and International Monetary Policy Cooperation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 399-431, March.
    8. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You, 2022. "Can skewness predict CNY-CNH spread?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    9. Huang, Zhigang & Zhang, Weilan, 2024. "Exploring the Spillover effects of tail risk fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate—The time-frequency and quantile connectivity perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regime reform; RMB; Information flows; Spillover effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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