IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v53y2019icp30-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fluctuation and reform: A tale of two RMB markets

Author

Listed:
  • Liang, Yousha
  • Shi, Kang
  • Wang, Lisheng
  • Xu, Juanyi

Abstract

The framework of “one currency, two markets” makes China’s currency market quite unique compared to its Western counterparts. In this study, we characterize the linkage between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates, and estimate the effect of the recent Renminbi market reforms against the backdrop of Renminbi internationalization. Using GARCH-type models, we find robust evidence of the volatility clustering phenomenon and the leverage effect in the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. We also find that the recent Renminbi currency market reforms all increase the volatility of the pricing differential between the two Renminbi markets, while these reforms are proved to either enlarge or shrink the pricing differential.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Yousha & Shi, Kang & Wang, Lisheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2019. "Fluctuation and reform: A tale of two RMB markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 30-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:30-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X18301032
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    2. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    3. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    5. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    6. Lawrence J. Lau & Yingyi Qian & Gerard Roland, 2000. "Reform without Losers: An Interpretation of China's Dual-Track Approach to Transition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 120-143, February.
    7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    8. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
    9. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    10. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    14. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    15. Hoshikawa, Takeshi, 2008. "The effect of intervention frequency on the foreign exchange market: The Japanese experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 547-559, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guanyu Su & Junhui Qian, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Renminbi Exchange Rate Mechanism," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(2), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Jia, Fei & Shen, Yao & Ren, Junfan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "The impact of offshore exchange rate expectations on onshore exchange rates: The case of Chinese RMB," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Kinkyo, Takuji, 2022. "The intermediating role of the Chinese renminbi in Asian currency markets: Evidence from partial wavelet coherence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Yang‐Chao Wang & Jui‐Jung Tsai & Shushu Li & Yiying Huang, 2023. "The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 502-523, September.
    6. Xu, Lei. & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2021. "Continuous wavelet analysis of Chinese renminbi: Co-movement and lead-lag relationship between onshore and offshore exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Li, Xue & Liu, Yanghui & Li, Hanxu & Li, Jie, 2021. "Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.
    9. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You, 2022. "Can skewness predict CNY-CNH spread?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    10. Xiaoping Li & Zhipeng Zhang & Junyu Pan & Jihong Duan, 2023. "Investor attention and the predictability of the volatility of CNY‐CNH spreads: Evidence from a GARCH‐MIDAS model," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 4939-4959, December.
    11. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Wang, Fan & Pan, Changchun & Wang, Weiqiang, 2023. "Impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on RMB exchange rate volatility:The role of international capital flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dutta, Shantanu & Essaddam, Naceur & Kumar, Vinod & Saadi, Samir, 2017. "How does electronic trading affect efficiency of stock market and conditional volatility? Evidence from Toronto Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 867-877.
    2. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    3. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming & Ke, Jian, 2021. "Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Pavlidis Efthymios G & Paya Ivan & Peel David A, 2010. "Specifying Smooth Transition Regression Models in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, May.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
    7. Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012. "Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis," MPRA Paper 41624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Timmermann, Allan, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fuentes Vélez, Mariana & Pinilla Barrera, Alejandro, 2021. "Transmisión de volatilidad en el Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA): una evidencia del grado de integración. || Transmission of volatility in the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA): evidenc," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 31(1), pages 301-328, June.
    12. Allan Timmermann, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 449-479, November.
    13. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    14. Charles, Amélie, 2010. "The day-of-the-week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 143-152, April.
    15. Noori, Mohammad & Hitaj, Asmerilda, 2023. "Dissecting hedge funds' strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Outliers in Garch models and the estimation of risk measures," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws100502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. E. Ramos-P'erez & P. J. Alonso-Gonz'alez & J. J. N'u~nez-Vel'azquez, 2020. "Forecasting volatility with a stacked model based on a hybridized Artificial Neural Network," Papers 2006.16383, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    18. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    19. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    20. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renminbi markets; CNH and CNY exchange rate; Pricing differential; Volatility; Currency market reform; GARCH-type model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:30-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.