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The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers

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  • Li, Jie
  • Smallwood, Aaron D.

Abstract

The exchange rate system in China is unique, as onshore and offshore markets exist for a single currency. This paper investigates the evolution of information transmission for each market and explores their relative roles in driving price discovery and volatility spillovers as the RMB becomes more market oriented. We find that onshore returns and volatilities are increasingly influenced by the offshore market, with differences across various exchange rate policy phases. Using a novel method to capture asymmetric spillovers, the findings also show that the volatility of the onshore market is much more susceptible to offshore shocks when the RMB depreciates. To determine the factors influencing the strength of volatility spillovers, we provide additional regression analysis. The results show that capital flows and the degree of intervention are important determinants of information flows under unexpected RMB weakness in recent samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jie & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2025. "The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:65:y:2025:i:c:s1044028325000134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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