IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v65y2025ics1044028325000134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jie
  • Smallwood, Aaron D.

Abstract

The exchange rate system in China is unique, as onshore and offshore markets exist for a single currency. This paper investigates the evolution of information transmission for each market and explores their relative roles in driving price discovery and volatility spillovers as the RMB becomes more market oriented. We find that onshore returns and volatilities are increasingly influenced by the offshore market, with differences across various exchange rate policy phases. Using a novel method to capture asymmetric spillovers, the findings also show that the volatility of the onshore market is much more susceptible to offshore shocks when the RMB depreciates. To determine the factors influencing the strength of volatility spillovers, we provide additional regression analysis. The results show that capital flows and the degree of intervention are important determinants of information flows under unexpected RMB weakness in recent samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jie & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2025. "The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:65:y:2025:i:c:s1044028325000134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044028325000134
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
    3. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Hu, Genhua & Wang, Xiangjin & Qiu, Hong, 2023. "Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 408-417.
    5. David K. Ding & Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2014. "The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 103-123, February.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    11. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    12. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    13. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
    14. Carnero M. Angeles & Eratalay M. Hakan, 2014. "Estimating VAR-MGARCH models in multiple steps," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 339-365, May.
    15. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    17. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    18. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2022. "Inference in Misspecified GARCH‐M Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 334-355, April.
    19. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    20. Green, Rikard & Larsson, Karl & Lunina, Veronika & Nilsson, Birger, 2018. "Cross-commodity news transmission and volatility spillovers in the German energy markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-243.
    21. Urban J. Jermann & Bin Wei & Vivian Z. Yue, 2022. "The Two‐Pillar Policy for the RMB," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3093-3140, December.
    22. Park, Beum-Jo, 2011. "Asymmetric herding as a source of asymmetric return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2657-2665, October.
    23. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.
    24. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.
    25. Ziyao Wang & Yufei Xia & Yating Fu & Ying Liu, 2023. "Volatility Spillover Dynamics and Determinants between FinTech and Traditional Financial Industry: Evidence from China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    26. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    27. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    28. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    30. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    31. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Volatility Spillovers Across Countries and Asset Classes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 333-354, February.
    32. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    33. Liang, Yousha & Shi, Kang & Wang, Lisheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2019. "Fluctuation and reform: A tale of two RMB markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 30-52.
    34. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    35. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    36. Xu, Lei. & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2021. "Continuous wavelet analysis of Chinese renminbi: Co-movement and lead-lag relationship between onshore and offshore exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    37. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    38. Caporin, Massimiliano & Malik, Farooq, 2020. "Do structural breaks in volatility cause spurious volatility transmission?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-82.
    39. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Wan, Xiaoli & Yan, Yuruo & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes and market integration: evidence from the dynamic relations between renminbi onshore and offshore markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    42. Sun, Yuying & Bao, Qin & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Vellachami, Sanggetha & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Brooks, Robert, 2023. "Risk transmission from the energy markets to the carbon market: Evidence from the recursive window approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin & Qin, Rong-Ling & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Return spillover across China's financial markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.
    6. Hu, Genhua & Wang, Xiangjin & Qiu, Hong, 2023. "Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 408-417.
    7. Green, Rikard & Larsson, Karl & Lunina, Veronika & Nilsson, Birger, 2018. "Cross-commodity news transmission and volatility spillovers in the German energy markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-243.
    8. Michael Melvin & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 145-168, February.
    9. Fengming Qin & Junru Zhang & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "RMB Exchange Rates and Volatility Spillover across Financial Markets in China and Japan," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    10. Liang Wang & Xianyan Xiong & Ziqiu Cao, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility spillovers between Chinese renminbi onshore and offshore markets during the COVID-19 crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
    12. Yang‐Chao Wang & Jui‐Jung Tsai & Shushu Li & Yiying Huang, 2023. "The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 502-523, September.
    13. Chen, Yu-Lun & Xu, Ke, 2021. "The impact of RMB’s SDR inclusion on price discovery in onshore-offshore markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    16. Ferhat Camlica & Didem Gunes & Etkin Ozen, 2017. "A Financial Connectedness Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 1719, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    18. David Gabauer, 2020. "Volatility impulse response analysis for DCC‐GARCH models: The role of volatility transmission mechanisms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 788-796, August.
    19. Lavín, Jaime F. & Valle, Mauricio A. & Magner, Nicolás S., 2024. "Stock market pattern recognition using symbol entropy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Wu, Ruirui & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2024. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers among new energy, ESG, green bond and carbon markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:65:y:2025:i:c:s1044028325000134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.