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Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect

Author

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  • Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
  • Haonan Zhou

Abstract

We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2023. "Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect," IMF Working Papers 2023/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/028
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    Cited by:

    1. Bahaj, Saleem & Fuchs, Marie & Reis, Ricardo, 2024. "The Global Network of Liquidity Lines," CEPR Discussion Papers 19070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nadav Ben Zeev & Daniel Nathan, 2023. "The Persistent Widening of Cross-Currency Basis: When Increased FX Swap Demand Meets Limits of Arbitrage," Working Papers 2316, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    3. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Nathan, Daniel, 2024. "The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Chari, Anusha & Dilts Stedman, Karlye & Lundblad, Christian, 2025. "Risk-on/risk-off: Measuring shifts in investor risk bearing capacity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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