IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/igiwpp/2015-011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign exchange markets, intervention and exchange rate regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

While macroeconomic fundamentals determine the exchange rate at long horizons, there are substantial and persistent deviations from these fundamentals. The market microstructure within which they operate, macroeconomic fundamentals, and policies all affect foreign exchange (FX) markets. The paper describes the institutional features of these markets, with special emphasis on the process of liberalization and deepening in Indian FX markets, in the context of global integration. Since the mechanics of FX trading affect exchange rates, they have implications for the appropriate exchange rate regime. First, bounds on the volatility of the exchange rate can lower noise trading in FX markets decrease variance, improve fundamentals and give more monetary policy autonomy. Second, the speculative demand curve is well behaved under strategic interaction between differentially informed speculators and the Central Bank (CB) when there is greater uncertainty about fundamentals as in emerging markets. So a diffuse target and strategic revelation of selected information can be expected to be effective. Analysis of Indian experience confirms these research results. CB actions, including intervention and signaling, have major effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2015. "Foreign exchange markets, intervention and exchange rate regimes," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2015-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashima Goyal, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 153-175.
    2. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
    3. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    4. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
    5. Harendra Kumar Behera, 2011. "Onshore and offshore market for Indian rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 43-55.
    6. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
    7. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    8. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
    9. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
    10. Maendra Dev, S., 2015. "India Development Report 2015," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199459452.
    11. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "External shocks," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-046, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2017. "Intervention And Signaling: Interaction Between Central Banks And Fx Markets In An Emerging Market," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 193-225, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goyal, Ashima, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the exchange rate: working together?," MPRA Paper 27768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2018. "The effect of oil shocks and cyclicality in hiding Indian twin deficits," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(1), pages 27-45, January.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "Evaluating India’s exchange rate regime under global shocks," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 304-321, September.
    5. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Non-deliverable forwards: 2013 and beyond," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2019. "Estimating the Relationship Between the Current Account, the Capital Account and Investment for India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 29-45, February.
    7. Tsuyuguchi, Yosuke & Wooldridge, Philip D., 2008. "The evolution of trading activity in Asian foreign exchange markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 231-246, December.
    8. Ashima Goyal, 2015. "Financial stability: Underlining context," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    10. Jimmy Melo, 2014. "Expectativas cambiarias, selección adversa y liquidez," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 27-62, May.
    11. Samar Maziad & Mr. Joong S Kang, 2012. "RMB Internationalization: O+L5022nshore/Offshore Links," IMF Working Papers 2012/133, International Monetary Fund.
    12. R. Andergassen, 2003. "Rational destabilising speculation and the riding of bubbles," Working Papers 475, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2004. "Smoothing sudden stops," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 104-127, November.
    14. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Adrian, Tobias, 2009. "Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-64, January.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, December.
    18. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2006. "External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 37-63, June.
    20. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2008. "Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 107-130, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange markets; intervention; information; exchange rate bounds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/igidrin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.