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Foreign exchange markets, intervention and exchange rate regimes

Listed author(s):
  • Ashima Goyal

    ()

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

While macroeconomic fundamentals determine the exchange rate at long horizons, there are substantial and persistent deviations from these fundamentals. The market microstructure within which they operate, macroeconomic fundamentals, and policies all affect foreign exchange (FX) markets. The paper describes the institutional features of these markets, with special emphasis on the process of liberalization and deepening in Indian FX markets, in the context of global integration. Since the mechanics of FX trading affect exchange rates, they have implications for the appropriate exchange rate regime. First, bounds on the volatility of the exchange rate can lower noise trading in FX markets decrease variance, improve fundamentals and give more monetary policy autonomy. Second, the speculative demand curve is well behaved under strategic interaction between differentially informed speculators and the Central Bank (CB) when there is greater uncertainty about fundamentals as in emerging markets. So a diffuse target and strategic revelation of selected information can be expected to be effective. Analysis of Indian experience confirms these research results. CB actions, including intervention and signaling, have major effects.

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File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2015-011.pdf
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Paper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2015-011.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2015
Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-011
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  1. Ashima Goyal, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 153-175.
  2. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
  3. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  4. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
  5. Harendra Kumar Behera, 2011. "Onshore and offshore market for Indian rupee: recent evidence on volatility and shock spillover," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 43-55.
  6. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
  7. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  8. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
  9. Ashima Goyal & R Ayyappan Nair & Amaresh Samantaraya, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
  10. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "External shocks," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-046, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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