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Estimating the relationship between the current account, the capital account and investment for India

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Vaishnavi Sharma

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Causality from the capital account (KA) to the current account (CA) of the balance of payments indicates disruption from capital flows while the reverse can indicate smooth financing of the CA that allows investment to exceed domestic savings. A three-variable vector autoregression tests for Granger causality between the Indian CA, KA, KA components, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) over 2000-01Q1 to 2015-16Q3. Since a current account deficit indicates an excess of investment over savings it is useful to estimate which type of capital flows affect investment. No causality is found to exist in any direction between the KA and the CA. There is only indirect causality through some components. Of the capital flow components only FDI affects GFCF. The latter consistently affects the CA. The CA affects debt portfolio flows and non-resident deposits, suggesting these were used to finance the CA, but they were not causal for GFCF. Volatile flows therefore did not deteriorate the CA, but they also did not contribute to GFCF. India's gradual capital account convertibility may have mitigated shocks from the KA. Long-term sustainability, however, requires FDI to increase compared to other types of flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between the current account, the capital account and investment for India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Tanveer Ahmad Khan, 2022. "Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 41-65, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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