IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/86401.html

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Tunc, Cengiz
  • Solakoglu, Mehmet Nihat
  • Hazar, Adalet
  • Babuscu, Senol

Abstract

Using World Bank’s Exporter Dynamics Database, we investigate the role of external exchange rate volatility on export in addition to the effect of bilateral exchange rate volatility. The results show that while the bilateral exchange rate volatility has depressing effect on export, external exchange rate volatility generates trade-promoting effect. However, the magnitude of the effect depends on the trade intensity between countries and the economic development of the destination country. We further find strong asymmetric effect that both the trade-depressing effect of the bilateral volatility and trade-promoting effect of the external volatility are larger for exchange rate depreciations and for larger swings in the volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, Mehmet Nihat & Hazar, Adalet & Babuscu, Senol, 2018. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters," MPRA Paper 86401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86401/1/MPRA_paper_86401.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    4. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    5. Cebeci, Tolga & Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Exporter dynamics database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6229, The World Bank.
    6. Tunç, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2016. "Does exchange rate volatility matter for international sales? Evidence from US firm level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 152-156.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 555-586, July.
    8. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat & Babuscu, Senol & Hazar, Adalet, 2018. "Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 152-155.
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    10. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    11. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    12. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00960664 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    14. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    16. Ivan T. Kandilov, 2008. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1028-1043.
    17. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2015. "Relative Real Exchange-Rate Volatility, Multi-Destination Firms and Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2015-03, CEPII research center.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Kaveepot Satawatananon, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 515-532, August.
    19. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    20. Kumar, Ramesh & Dhawan, Ravinder, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and Pakistan's exports to the developed world, 1974-85," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(9), pages 1225-1240, September.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2018. "A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 607-637, August.
    23. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01044989 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Grier, Kevin B. & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2013. "Exchange rate shocks and trade: A multivariate GARCH-M approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-305.
    25. Mehmet Nihat Solakoglu & Ebru Guven Solakoglu & Tunc Demirağ, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: a firm-level analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 921-929.
    26. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    27. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    28. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    29. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    30. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 500-507, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cengiz Tunç & M. Nihat Solakoglu, 2025. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Firms’ Export Decisions: Evidence from Exporter Dynamics Database," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 651-677, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cengiz Tunç & M. Nihat Solakoglu, 2025. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Firms’ Export Decisions: Evidence from Exporter Dynamics Database," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 651-677, April.
    2. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    3. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    4. James Temitope Dada, 2020. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 149-162, July.
    5. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    6. Chi, Junwook, 2020. "The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 66-78.
    7. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    8. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Hamat Che Abdul Fatah, 2016. "The Effects of Currency Depreciation on Industry Trade Flows between Malaysia and China," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 181-206, May.
    9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    10. Sung-Ko Li & Chun-Kei Tsang, 2020. "The Impacts Of Biased Resource Allocation On The Effectiveness Of Official Development Assistance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 239-256, March.
    11. Linh T.D. Huynh & Hien Thanh Hoang, 2019. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral import performance of Vietnam: A dynamic Generalised method of Moments panel approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 88-110, January.
    12. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    13. Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2013. "Towards a theory of trade finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 96-112.
    14. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    15. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i5ast4viool3gqa is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    18. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    19. Dreyer, H., . "Was erklärt den Außenhandel der deutschen Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft? Eine ökonometrische Analyse auf Basis des Gravitationsmodells," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 48.
    20. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat & Babuscu, Senol & Hazar, Adalet, 2018. "Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 152-155.
    21. Bosupeng, Mpho & Naranpanawa, Athula & Su, Jen-Je, 2024. "Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.