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Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits : what causes what?

Author

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  • Fry, Maxwell J.
  • Claessens,Constantijn A.
  • Burridge, Peter
  • Blanchet, Marie-Christine

Abstract

This paper is part of a larger effort to study the determinants and impact of foreign direct investment. The authors examine flows of foreign direct investment to 46 developing countries to test whether such flows are autonomous or accommodating vis-a-vis the current account and other capital flows. Using Granger-casualty tests, they find that: 1) requirements to surrender exports proceeds to the monetary authorities and the existence of special exchange rates for some capital account transactions reduce the probability that foreign direct investment is independent; 2) the more liberal a country's foreign exchange system, the more foreign direct investment is likely to be independent or exogenous; and 3) foreign direct investment is associated with a larger increase in capital formation when it is independent than when it is Granger-caused by other capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Fry, Maxwell J. & Claessens,Constantijn A. & Burridge, Peter & Blanchet, Marie-Christine, 1995. "Foreign direct investment, other capital flows, and current account deficits : what causes what?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1527, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1527
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    1. Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2014. "Origin of FDI and domestic productivity spillovers: does European FDI have a 'productivity advantage' in the ENP countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55267, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Özge Barış-Tüzemen & Samet Tüzemen, 2022. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Biomass Energy Consumption on Pollution in BRICS Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 76-92, January.
    3. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Srinivasan, T.G. & Murrell, Kim, 1996. "India in the global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1681, The World Bank.
    4. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    5. Danish Ahmed SIDDIQUI & Mohsin Hasnain AHMAD & Muhammad ASIM, 2013. "The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account: an empirical investigation for Pakistan economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(8(585)), pages 91-106, August.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2019. "Estimating the Relationship Between the Current Account, the Capital Account and Investment for India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 29-45, February.
    7. Lensink, Robert & White, Howard, 1998. "Does the Revival of International Private Capital Flows Mean the End of Aid?: An Analysis of Developing Countries' Access to Private Capital," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1221-1234, July.
    8. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2012. "Uncovering the channels through which FDI affects current account: the case of Turkey," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 158-167.
    9. B. Bayraktar-Saglam & A.Y. Yalta, 2015. "Current Account Imbalances and Capital Flows," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 201-213, May.
    10. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    11. Serap Bedir & Aylin Soydan, 2016. "Implications of FDI for Current Account Balance: A Panel Causality Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 58-71.
    12. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2008. "Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 434-461.
    13. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Tanveer Ahmad Khan, 2022. "Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 41-65, February.
    15. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Are there different linkages of foreign capital inflows and the current account between industrial countries and emerging markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 25-54, August.
    16. Silvio Traverso & Guido Bonatti, 2015. "Education and FDI: An Insight from US Outflows," Journal of Social Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 101-116.
    17. Wei Sun & Lian An, 2011. "Dynamics of floating exchange rate: how important are capital flows relative to macroeconomic fundamentals?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 456-472, October.
    18. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.
    19. Jaydeep Mukherjee & Debashis Chakraborty & Tanaya Sinha, 2013. "How has FDI influenced Current Account Balance In India? Time Series Results in presence of Endogenous Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1317, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.

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