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Savings, Investment, Growth and Financial Distortions in Pacific Asia and Other Developing Areas

  • Maxwell Fry
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    I estimate a simultaneous-equation model in which the real deposit rate of interest and the black market exchange rate premium affect saving, investment, export growth and output growth. The estimates corroborate earlier findings that directeffects of financial distortions on savings are minuscule. Because a major determinant of savings is the output growth rate, however, I find that saving is influenced substantially, albeit indirectly, by financial distortions through their effect on investment, export growth, and output growth. Simulations indicate that difference in the average values of the financial distortion variables explain approximately 50 percent of the difference in saving ratios and 75 percent of the difference in out put growth rate between five Pacific Asian countries and 11 countries in other developing areas. [E20, E44, F41, O11, O16]

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10168739800000001
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 1-24

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:1-24
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    1. Giovannini, Alberto & de Melo, Martha, 1993. "Government Revenue from Financial Repression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 953-63, September.
    2. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
    3. Ronald D Lee & Andrew Mason & Tim Miller, 1998. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," Working Papers 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Scott, Maurice, 1992. "A New Theory of Endogenous Economic Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 29-42, Winter.
    5. Liu, Liang-Yn & Woo, Wing Thye, 1994. "Saving Behaviour under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 512-27, May.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Reynoso, 1989. "Financial Factors in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 2889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    8. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    10. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    11. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Capital Taxation and Accumulation in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 533-44, September.
    12. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    13. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    14. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    15. Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1992. "Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 71-90, January.
    17. Fry, Maxwell J & Lilien, David M, 1986. "Monetary Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 79-83, May.
    18. Fry, Maxwell J & Mason, Andrew, 1982. "The Variable Rate-of-Growth Effect in the Life-Cycle Saving Model: Children, Capital Inflows, Interest and Growth in a New Specification of the Life-Cycle Model Applied to Seven Asian Developing Count," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 426-42, July.
    19. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-75, November.
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