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Trades of the Living Dead: Style Differences, Style Persistence and Performance of Currency Fund Managers

Author

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  • Momtchil Pojarliev
  • Richard M. Levich

Abstract

We make use of a new database on daily currency fund manager returns over a three-year period, 2005-08. This higher frequency data allows us to estimate both alpha measures of performance and beta style factors on a yearly basis, which in turn allows us to test for persistence. We find no evidence to support alpha persistence; a manager's alpha in one year is not significantly related to his alpha in the prior year. On the other hand, there is substantial evidence for style persistence; funds that rely on carry, trend or value trading or with a long/short bias toward currency volatility are likely to maintain that style in the following year. In addition, we are able to examine the performance of managers that survive through the entire sample period, versus those that drop out. We find significant differences in both the investment styles of living versus deceased funds, as well as their realized alpha performance measures. We conjecture that both style differences and ineffective market timing, rather than market conditions, have impacted performance outcomes and induced some managers to close their funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2008. "Trades of the Living Dead: Style Differences, Style Persistence and Performance of Currency Fund Managers," NBER Working Papers 14355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14355 Note: IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 467-488, April.
    3. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    5. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    6. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Jorion, Philippe, 2010. "The performance of emerging hedge funds and managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 238-256, May.
    7. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Andreas Schrimpf, 2011. "FX strategies in periods of distress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Abbey, Boris S. & Doukas, John A., 2015. "Do individual currency traders make money?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 158-177.
    4. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2010. "Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds," NBER Working Papers 15698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John & Shand, Duncan, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    6. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard Levich, 2014. "Evaluating absolute return managers," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(1), pages 95-103, February.
    7. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simon, Guillaume, 2010. "Nonparametric Analysis of Hedge Funds Lifetimes," TSE Working Papers 10-174, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Gueorgui Konstantinov, 2016. "Capturing short-term and long-term alpha of global bond portfolios: evidence from EUR-investors’ perspective," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(3), pages 337-365, August.
    9. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2014. "Out-of-Sample Evidence on the Returns to Currency Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 9852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
    11. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Jianxin Wang & Minxian Yang, 2014. "Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 811-833, June.
    12. Louis Raffestin, 2016. "Foreign exchange investment rules and endogenous currency crashes," Working Papers hal-01277113, HAL.
    13. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Currency Value," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 416-441.
    14. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
    15. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:01:n:s2010495217500014 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 74-90.
    17. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    18. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
    19. Boldron, François & Fève, Frédérique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Panet-Amaro, C. & Valognes, C., 2010. "Econometric Models and the Evolution of Post-Offices Network," TSE Working Papers 10-180, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:654-667 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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