IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

The rise and fall of technical trading rule success

  • Taylor, Nick

The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of an important set of momentum-based technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to all members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock index over the period 1928–2012. Using a set of econometric models that permit time-variation in risk-adjusted returns to TTR portfolios, the results reveal that profits evolve slowly over time, are confined to particular episodes primarily from the mid-1960s to mid-1980s, and rely on the ability of investors to short-sell stocks. These findings are demonstrated to be consistent with theoretical models that predict a relationship between TTR performance and market conditions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613004664
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 40 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 286-302

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:286-302
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  2. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility,World-Wide," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0711, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecast Combination Across Estimation Windows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 307-318.
  5. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  10. Sharpe, William F, 1991. " Capital Asset Prices with and without Negative Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 489-509, June.
  11. Charles M. Jones & Owen A. Lamont, 2001. "Short Sale Constraints and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2012. "The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency in the US: A Non-Bayesian Time-Varying Model Approach," Papers 1202.0100, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
  13. Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
  15. Kent D. Daniel, 2001. "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 921-965, 06.
  16. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
  17. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2005. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 735-765.
  18. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September.
  19. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, 02.
  20. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Evert B. Vrugt, 2010. "Treasury Bond Volatility and Uncertainty about Monetary Policy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 707-728, 08.
  21. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
  22. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
  23. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  24. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
  25. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
  26. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
  27. Nicholas Taylor, 2012. "The Economic Significance Of Conditioning Information On Portfolio Efficiency In The Presence Of Costly Short‐Selling," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 115-135, 03.
  28. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
  29. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  30. Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1043-1071.
  31. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Joshua M. Ulrich, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  32. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
  33. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, 04.
  34. Karl B. Diether & Kuan-Hui Lee & Ingrid M. Werner, 2009. "Short-Sale Strategies and Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 575-607, February.
  35. Gili Yen & Cheng-few Lee, 2008. "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): Past, Present and Future," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 305-329.
  36. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  37. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
  38. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, 02.
  39. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
  40. Wang, Zhenyu, 1998. "Efficiency loss and constraints on portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 359-375, June.
  41. Adam C. Kolasinski & Adam Reed & Jacob R. Thornock, 2013. "Can Short Restrictions Actually Increase Informed Short Selling?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 155-181, 03.
  42. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
  43. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:286-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.