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Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability

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  • Isakov, Dusan
  • Marti, Didier

Abstract

This paper extends the literature on the profitability of technical analysis in three directions. First, we investigate the performance of complex trading rules based on moving averages computed over longer periods than those usually considered. Different trading rules are simulated on daily prices of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and we find that trading rules are more profitable when signals are generated over long horizons. Second, we analyse whether financial leverage can improve the profitability of different strategies, which appears to be the case when leverage is achieved with debt. Third, we propose a new market timing test that assesses whether a trading strategy can generate signals corresponding to bull and bear markets. The results of this test show that complex rules produce high proportions of accurate signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fri:fribow:fribow00421
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    File URL: http://doc.rero.ch/record/24769/files/WP_SES_421.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technical trading ; Moving average ; Forecasting ; Leverage ; Market timing;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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