IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v98y2025ics1059056025000589.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wine market efficiency: Is glass half full or half empty?

Author

Listed:
  • Shynkevich, Andrei

Abstract

This study investigates the efficiency of wine market and explores the predictability in wine returns. Daily returns on a portfolio of wines denominated in the original currency of trade for the period exhibit significant positive serial correlation that persists further when wine returns are sampled at weekly and monthly frequencies. Abnormal excess returns on wine are earned by various trading strategies designed to exploit trending behavior in asset prices before trading fees. After accounting for market frictions such as transaction costs, the abnormal profitability from wine trading evaporates. Claims of inefficiency and return predictability in a market sensitive to market frictions can be exaggerated when the latter are ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Shynkevich, Andrei, 2025. "Wine market efficiency: Is glass half full or half empty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:98:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025000589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.103895
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056025000589
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2025.103895?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    2. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kalok Chan, 1998. "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), Summer.
    3. Leuthold, Raymond M, 1972. "Random Walk and Price Trends: The Live Cattle Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 879-889, September.
    4. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    5. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe, 2018. "Wine indices in practice: Nicely labeled but slightly corked," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 555-569.
    6. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with shared data sets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-227.
    7. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    8. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    9. Mark J Ready, 2002. "Profits from Technical Trading Rules," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(3), Fall.
    10. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    11. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    12. David, Géraldine & Oosterlinck, Kim & Szafarz, Ariane, 2013. "Art market inefficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 23-25.
    13. Andrew Detzel & Robert Novy‐Marx & Mihail Velikov, 2023. "Model Comparison with Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1743-1775, June.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    15. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2014. "Predicting anomaly performance with politics, the weather, global warming, sunspots, and the stars," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 137-146.
    16. Chen, Andrew Y. & Velikov, Mihail, 2023. "Zeroing In on the Expected Returns of Anomalies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 968-1004, May.
    17. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    18. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    19. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    20. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    21. Schultz, Paul, 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect : A comment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-88, June.
    22. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
    23. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    24. Knez, Peter J & Ready, Mark J, 1996. "Estimating the Profits from Trading Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1121-1163.
    25. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    26. Andrew Y Chen & Tom Zimmermann & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2020. "Publication Bias and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 249-289.
    27. Erdos, Péter & Ormos, Mihály, 2010. "Random walk theory and the weak-form efficiency of the US art auction prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1062-1076, May.
    28. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    29. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    30. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
    31. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Does intraday technical analysis in the U.S. equity market have value?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-210, March.
    32. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    33. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    34. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    35. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
    36. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    37. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    38. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    39. Day, Theodore E. & Wang, Pingying, 2002. "Dividends, nonsynchronous prices, and the returns from trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 431-454, November.
    40. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2020. "Anomalies across the globe: Once public, no longer existent?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 213-230.
    41. Kwon, Ki-Yeol & Kish, Richard J., 2002. "A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) using NYSE and NASDAQ indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 611-631.
    42. Jokivuolle, Esa, 1995. "Measuring True Stock Index Value in the Presence of Infrequent Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 455-464, September.
    43. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    44. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
    45. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2016. "Predictability in bond returns using technical trading rules," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 55-69.
    46. Han, Yufeng & Yang, Ke & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "A New Anomaly: The Cross-Sectional Profitability of Technical Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1433-1461, October.
    47. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1039-1082 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    49. Stevenson, Richard A & Bear, Robert M, 1970. "Commodity Futures: Trends or Random Walks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 65-81, March.
    50. Novy-Marx, Robert & Velikov, Mihail, 2022. "Betting against betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 80-106.
    51. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2010. "Testing the predictive ability of technical analysis using a new stepwise test without data snooping bias," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-484, June.
    52. McLean, R. David, 2010. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Long-Term Reversal, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 883-906, August.
    53. Patton, Andrew J. & Weller, Brian M., 2020. "What you see is not what you get: The costs of trading market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 515-549.
    54. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2005. "Reexamining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with Data Snooping Checks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 606-628.
    55. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1995. "Problems in measuring portfolio performance An application to contrarian investment strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 79-107, May.
    56. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    57. Robert Novy-Marx & Mihail Velikov, 2016. "A Taxonomy of Anomalies and Their Trading Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 104-147.
    58. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    59. Hanna, J. Douglas & Ready, Mark J., 2005. "Profitable predictability in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 463-505, December.
    60. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    61. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
    62. Fernandez, Viviana, 2010. "Commodity futures and market efficiency: A fractional integrated approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 276-282, December.
    63. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhijian Huang, 2013. "Real-Time Profitability of Published Anomalies: An Out-of-Sample Test," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03n04), pages 1-33.
    64. Stephen Taylor, 2000. "Stock index and price dynamics in the UK and the US: new evidence from a trading rule and statistical analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-69.
    65. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    2. Hung, Chiayu & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2022. "Information asymmetry and the profitability of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Andrei Shynkevich, 2021. "Impact of bitcoin futures on the informational efficiency of bitcoin spot market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 115-134, January.
    4. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2013. "Time-series momentum as an intra- and inter-industry effect: Implications for market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 64-85.
    5. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Short-term predictability of equity returns along two style dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 675-685.
    6. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    7. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    9. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    10. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    12. Kevin Rink, 2023. "The predictive ability of technical trading rules: an empirical analysis of developed and emerging equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(4), pages 403-456, December.
    13. Ioana-Andreea Boboc & Mihai-Cristian Dinică, 2013. "An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.
    14. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Wu, Shui Tang, 2020. "Predictability in sovereign bond returns using technical trading rules: Do developed and emerging markets differ?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Andrew Y. Chen & Mihail Velikov, 2020. "Zeroing in on the Expected Returns of Anomalies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Huang, Jing-Zhi & Huang, Zhijian (James), 2020. "Testing moving average trading strategies on ETFs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-32.
    17. Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
    18. Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    19. Eero P䴤ri & Mika Vilska, 2014. "Performance of moving average trading strategies over varying stock market conditions: the Finnish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2851-2872, August.
    20. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    21. Kaplanski, Guy, 2023. "The race to exploit anomalies and the cost of slow trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:98:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025000589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.