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Why have the returns to technical analysis decreased?

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  • Kidd, Willis V.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade

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  • Kidd, Willis V. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2004. "Why have the returns to technical analysis decreased?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 159-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:56:y:2004:i:3:p:159-176
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    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & FARHAT, Abdeljelil, 2001. "Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions," Cahiers de recherche 2001-23, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Scott H. Irwin & B. Wade Brorsen, 1985. "Public futures funds," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 463-485, September.
    5. Mann, Jitendar S. & Heifner, Richard G., 1976. "The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements," Technical Bulletins 158107, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1972. "Correction of an Error in "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 542-543, October.
    7. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    8. Lukac, Louis P & Brorsen, B Wade, 1990. "A Comprehensive Test of Futures Market Disequilibrium," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 593-622, November.
    9. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    10. Scott H. Irwin & B. Wade Brorsen, 1987. "A note on the factors affecting technical trading system returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 591-595, October.
    11. B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "The live cattle futures market and daily cash price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 273-282, August.
    12. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. "On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-248, May.
    13. Holt, Bryce R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2000. "The Effects Of Futures Trading By Large Hedge Funds And Ctas On Market Volatility," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18935, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2001. "On the relevance of first-order asymptotic theory to economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 83-86, January.
    15. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. P.H. Kevin Chang & Carol L. Osler, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Louis P. Lukac & B. Wade Brorsen & Scott H. Irwin, 1988. "Similarity of computer guided technical trading systems," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    18. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    19. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    20. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
    2. Jasdeep S. Banga & B. Wade Brorsen, 2019. "Profitability of alternative methods of combining the signals from technical trading systems," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 32-45, January.
    3. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 633-659, July.
    5. Ślepaczuk Robert & Sakowski Paweł & Zakrzewski Grzegorz, 2018. "Investment Strategies that Beat the Market. What Can We Squeeze from the Market?," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 36-55, December.
    6. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2015. "Buy and sell signals on Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2016.
    7. Isakov, Dusan & Marti, Didier, 2011. "Technical Analysis with a Long-Term Perspective: Trading Strategies and Market Timing Ability," FSES Working Papers 421, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    8. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    9. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.

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