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The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements

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  • Mann, Jitendar S.
  • Heifner, Richard G.

Abstract

The statistical properties of daily closing futures prices for nine commodities are studied. Two hypotheses are examined: Price changes are normally distributed, and prices follow a random walk process. Normality is tested by estimating kurtosis, the R/S statistic, and characteristic exponents. The Gaussian hypothesis is rejected in a large proportion of cases. Randomness is tested by using the turning point test and the phase length test. Both tests reject the random walk hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mann, Jitendar S. & Heifner, Richard G., 1976. "The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements," Technical Bulletins 158107, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:158107
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.158107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Blattberg & Thomas Sargent, 2010. "Regression With Non-Gaussian Stable Disturbances: Some Sampling Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Greg M Allenby (ed.), Perspectives On Promotion And Database Marketing The Collected Works of Robert C Blattberg, chapter 1, pages 7-16, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Brinegar, Claude S., 1970. "A Statistical Analysis of Speculative Price Behavior," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 9(Supplemen), pages 1-72.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, MinKyoung & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2000. "The Distributional Behavior Of Futures Price Spreads," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Kidd, Willis V. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2004. "Why have the returns to technical analysis decreased?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 159-176.
    4. Peterson, Paul E. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1982. "Using Mechanical Trading Systems To Evaluate The Weak Form Efficiency Of Futures Markets," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-5, July.
    5. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 105-116, March.
    6. Hauser, Robert J. & Anderson, Dane K., 1984. "Modifying Traditional Option Pricing Formulae For Options On Soybean Futures," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 279099, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Ward, Clement E., 1980. "Toward A Performance Evaluation Of The Carcass Beef Market - Weak Form Test Of The Efficient Markets Model," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(01), pages 1-7, July.
    8. You‐How Go & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "What do we know about informational efficiency? Three puzzles and the new direction forward," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1489-1525, September.
    9. Karmen, Bradley & Mann, Jitendar S., 1981. "Efficiency Of Flexible Foreign Exchange Markets," Staff Reports 276714, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    11. Kenyon, David E. & Harrington, David H., 1983. "Hedging strategies and farm marketing and financial risks," Agricultural Outlook Forum Archive 1923 - 1997 326150, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    12. Paul, Allen B., 1976. "Treatment of Hedging in Commodity Market Regulation," Technical Bulletins 158109, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Pluhar, Darwin M. & Shafer, Carl E. & Sporleder, Thomas L., "undated". "Helmuth's Trading Technique: Further Evidence and Implications for Cattle Hedging Strategies 1975-1982," Staff Paper Series 257976, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    14. Min-Kyoung Kim & Raymond M. Leuthold & ., 1997. "The Distributional Behavior of Futures Price Spread Changes: Parametric and Nonparametric Tests for Gold, T-Bonds, Corn and Live Cattle," Finance 9711001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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