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Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules

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  • Metghalchi, Massoud
  • Chang, Yung-Ho
  • Marcucci, Juri

Abstract

In this paper we examine the profitability of some technical trading rules in the Swedish stock market over the 1986-2004 periods. The results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and could discern recurring-price patterns for profitable trading, even after accounting for the effects of data snooping biases. To assess the profitability of different technical trading rules and strategies, we adopt White's [White, H. (2000). A Reality Check for data snooping, Econometrica, 68, 1097-1126.] Reality Check test that quantifies the data snooping bias adjusting for its effects. Our results also support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy-and-hold strategy even considering transaction costs.

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  • Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:475-490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
    2. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI, November.
    3. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    4. Kung, James J., 2009. "Predictability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 5(1-2).
    5. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:115-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    7. Metghalchi Massoud & Garza-Gomez Xavier, 2011. "Trading Rules for the Abu Dhabi Stock Index," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, May.
    8. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Sturludóttir, Hildur, 2015. "Do capital controls affect stock market efficiency? Lessons from Iceland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 82-88.
    9. repec:eee:pacfin:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:92-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2016. "Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 179-196.

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