IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v44y2020i4d10.1007_s12197-020-09514-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Efficient market hypothesis: a ruinous implication for Portugese stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Farhang Niroomand

    (University of Houston-Victoria)

  • Massoud Metghalchi

    (University of Houston-Victoria)

  • Massomeh Hajilee

    (University of Houston-Victoria)

Abstract

The advocates of the efficient market hypothesis recommend buying the market index for the long run, the implication for the Portuguese investors are to buy the PSI-20 index and hold it for at least 15 years. In this paper, we compare two other strategies for PSI-20 over the period 1999 to 2020. The first strategy is based on moving average trading rules and the second strategy, Gold Momentum Strategy (GMS), is based on switching between gold and PSI-20 based on semi-annual performance. Our findings suggest that the moving average trading rules beat the buy and hold strategy by more than 10% per year over the entire period and each sub-period considering both risk and transaction costs. For the second strategy, GMS which is based on comparing the performance of the PSI-20 and the gold index on semi-annual basis and go with the best of two for the next 6 months, we find similar results as the moving average trading rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhang Niroomand & Massoud Metghalchi & Massomeh Hajilee, 2020. "Efficient market hypothesis: a ruinous implication for Portugese stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 749-763, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:44:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-020-09514-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-020-09514-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-020-09514-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-020-09514-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    2. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    3. Mengoli, Stefano, 2004. "On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 301-331.
    4. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    5. A. E. Milionis & E. Papanagiotou, 2011. "A test of significance of the predictive power of the moving average trading rule of technical analysis based on sensitivity analysis: application to the NYSE, the Athens Stock Exchange and the Vienna," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 421-436.
    6. Hagerman, Robert L & Richmond, Richard D, 1973. "Random Walks, Martingales and the OTC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 897-909, September.
    7. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 2001. "Liquidity, Volatility and Equity Trading Costs across Countries and over Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 221-255, Summer.
    8. Paul Draper & Krishna Paudyal, 1997. "Microstructure and Seasonality in the UK Equity Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7‐8), pages 1177-1204, September.
    9. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
    10. A. Antoniou & N. Ergul & P. Holmes & R. Priestley, 1997. "Technical analysis, trading volume and market efficiency: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 361-365.
    11. Thapa, Chandra & Poshakwale, Sunil S., 2010. "International equity portfolio allocations and transaction costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2627-2638, November.
    12. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    13. Burton G. Malkiel, 2005. "Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-9, February.
    14. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    15. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    16. Jensen, Michael C & Bennington, George A, 1970. "Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 469-482, May.
    17. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    18. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. Massoud Metghalchi & Juri Marcucci & Yung-Ho Chang, 2012. "Are moving average trading rules profitable? Evidence from the European stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1539-1559, April.
    20. Eero P䴤ri & Mika Vilska, 2014. "Performance of moving average trading strategies over varying stock market conditions: the Finnish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2851-2872, August.
    21. Waud, Roger N, 1970. "Public Interpretation of Federal Reserve Discount Rate Changes: Evidence on the 'Announcement Effect'," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 231-250, March.
    22. M. F. M. Osborne, 1962. "Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 345-379, June.
    23. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Paul Draper & Krishna Paudyal, 1997. "Microstructure and Seasonality in the UK Equity Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7‐8), pages 1177-1204, September.
    25. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323441, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    26. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
    27. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2018. "Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(3), pages 362-385, June.
    28. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    29. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Wing-Kam Ng, 2008. "Technical analysis and the London stock exchange: testing the MACD and RSI rules using the FT30," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1111-1114.
    30. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Suzanne Fifield & David Power & C. Donald Sinclair, 2005. "An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 531-548.
    32. Ki-Yeol Kwon & Richard Kish, 2002. "Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 639-653.
    33. Larson, Arnold B., 1960. "Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12.
    34. Massoud Metghalchi & Massomeh Hajilee & Linda A. Hayes, 2019. "Return Predictability and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Bulgarian Stock Market," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 251-268, May.
    35. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nuray Tosunoğlu & Hilal Abacı & Gizem Ateş & Neslihan Saygılı Akkaya, 2023. "Artificial neural network analysis of the day of the week anomaly in cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    2. Massoud Metghalchi & Linda A. Hayes & Farhang Niroomand, 2019. "A technical approach to equity investing in emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 389-403, July.
    3. Urquhart, Andrew & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2015. "How exactly do markets adapt? Evidence from the moving average rule in three developed markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 127-147.
    4. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    5. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
    6. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    7. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
    8. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2016. "Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 179-196.
    9. Yung-Ho Chang & Massoud Metghalchi & Chia-Chung Chan, 2006. "Technical trading strategies and cross-national information linkage: the case of Taiwan stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 731-743.
    10. Metghalchi Massoud & Garza-Gomez Xavier, 2011. "Trading Rules for the Abu Dhabi Stock Index," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, May.
    11. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    12. Olivier Brandouy & Philippe Mathieu, 2006. "A Broad-Spectrum Computational Approach for Market Efficiency," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 492, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    15. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    16. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    17. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    18. Bell, Peter N, 2013. "New Testing Procedures to Assess Market Efficiency with Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 46701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ghada A. Altarawneh & Ahmad B. Hassanat & Ahmad S. Tarawneh & Ahmad Abadleh & Malek Alrashidi & Mansoor Alghamdi, 2022. "Stock Price Forecasting for Jordan Insurance Companies Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Utilizing Off-the-Shelf Technical Analysis Methods," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient market; Trading rules; Momentum strategy; Moving average;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:44:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-020-09514-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.