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Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide

  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Kamil Yilmaz

Notwithstanding its impressive contributions to empirical financial economics, there remains a significant gap in the volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries. We find a clear link between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock market volatilities, with volatile fundamentals translating into volatile stock markets.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14269.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14269.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14269
Note: AP EFG IFM
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  8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  10. Peter Montiel & Luis Servén, 2006. "Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 151-178.
  11. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2004. "Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Practical volatility and correlation modeling for financial market risk management," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
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  18. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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