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Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries

Author

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  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

The author examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Serven, Luis, 2002. "Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2823, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    2. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2008. "Effect of Government Spending and Macro-Economic Uncertainty on Private Investment in Services Sector: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 11673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mellati, Ali, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment in private sector: An analytical argument and a review of the economy of Iran," MPRA Paper 26655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ricardo Bebczuk & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "Revisiting the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: An institutional sector view," IIE Journal, IIE Journal, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0, pages 69-104, January-D.
    5. Ibrahima Amadou DIALLO, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment: A Panel Data Cointegration Approach," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 127-135.
    6. Sanogo, Issa & Gyengani, Zakaria, 2008. "Private investment in guinea, does macro-instability matter? A comparative analysis," MPRA Paper 11606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    8. Ricardo Bebczuk & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "The Feldstein-Horioka Paradox: A New Perspective from the Institutional Sector Level," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(46), pages 103-136, January -.
    9. Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam & Siddiqi, Muhammad Wasif, 2013. "GDP Fluctuations and Private Investment: A Macro Panel Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 60231, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2014.
    10. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    11. Acosta, Pablo & Loza, Andres, 2005. "Short and Long Run Determinants of Private Investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8(2), pages 1-18, November.

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